{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Adjusted (Operating) EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.35 vs. cons ~$2.30",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2'26 Revenue (post-Calpine)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$8.4B vs. cons ~$8.3B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Nuclear fleet capacity factor / output (favorable outage comp vs 22 non-refuel days in Q2'25)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~95.5% vs. cons ~94.5%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adj. EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirmed $11.00-$12.00 (~$11.60 midpoint bias-upper) vs. cons ~$11.74 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marquee nuclear data-center PPA (Calvert Cliffs/Amazon) \u2014 the real catalyst",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred no signed deal, framework talk only vs. cons ~1 deal hoped (H2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": ">20% base EPS CAGR through 2029 (supported by 18,875 MW cleared at ~$325 cap, ~$2.2B capacity rev)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide >20% CAGR reaffirmed/tilting up vs. cons ~20% (2024-2029)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback pace at depressed price / $5B authorization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide accelerated repurchase in ~$260s vs. cons ~$335M/qtr prior pace (H2'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Base case is a clean but low-drama EPS beat with a reaffirmed (not raised) FY guide and no signed marquee data-center PPA. Strong H1 run-rate (~$5.0 of $11-12) against only a reaffirm implies conservative/implicit H2 assumptions, capping upward revisions and creating mild fade risk. But the ~$325-cap PJM capacity clear, favorable summer dispatch/outage comp, aggressive buyback at ~$260s, and a still-far-above-spot sell-side target gap (~$360 vs ~$265) put a floor under the stock. Net: initial pop partially given back, settling roughly flat-to-slightly-positive on an idiosyncratic basis absent a catalyst headline.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}