{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 adjusted operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.44 vs. cons $2.41",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 operating revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$8.05B vs. cons $7.94B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 nuclear capacity factor",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~95.2% vs. cons 95.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted operating EPS midpoint",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$11.50 vs. cons $11.74 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Implied second-half adjusted operating EPS",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.32 vs. cons $6.59 (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Free cash flow before growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.40B vs. cons $8.40B (2026-2027 cumulative)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Calpine EPS accretion",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.00/share vs. cons $2.00/share (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest Q2 beat should initially help, but an unchanged $11.00-$12.00 FY2026 range would leave the $11.50 midpoint below $11.74 consensus and imply only ~$6.32 of H2 EPS versus ~$6.59 consensus, driving out-period estimate cuts unless management adds upper-half confidence or announces concrete data-center contracting progress.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}