| CF |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$6.15 vs. cons ~$5.68 |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$1,280M vs. cons ~$1,150M |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Report |
Net Sales/Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.52B vs. cons ~$2.45B |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Guide |
FY2026 gross ammonia production |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~9.5 million tons vs. cons ~9.5 million tons (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Guide |
FY2026 total capex (consolidated) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.3B vs. cons ~$1.3B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Guide |
2H26 urea/ammonia realized price outlook (de-escalation risk commentary) |
LOWER |
guide ~$500-550/tonne implied 2H realization vs. cons ~$650/tonne assumed (2H2026) |
LOW |
| CF |
Guide |
Q3 share buyback pace |
BETTER |
guide ~$150M vs. cons ~$50M (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| CF |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| CF |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FADE) |
Q2 numbers should beat on cheap Henry Hub gas (Q2 avg well below Q1's $4.57/MMBtu) layered on still-elevated YoY nitrogen pricing, but the print lands into a market that has spent the prior two weeks aggressively unwinding the Iran war-risk premium (Trump canceling strikes, active US-Iran talks, oil collapsing, CF down ~7% since July 22 even as SPX rallied). That de-escalation directly threatens the >$700/tonne post-July-8 urea spike CF needs to sustain 2H26/FY27 estimates, and Yazoo City remains offline into at least late Q4. Expect sell-side to trim out-period (Q3/Q4/FY27) EBITDA and EPS estimates even after a Q2 beat, pulling the stock back down over the following days as the 'beat-but-guide-down-the-macro-tailwind' pattern plays out — consistent with a fade rather than follow-through. |
LOW |