CF Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CF Report Q2 2026 net sales BEAT pred ~$2.52B vs. cons $2.47B MEDIUM
CF Report Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.62B vs. cons $1.58B MEDIUM
CF Report Q2 2026 diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$5.84 vs. cons $5.70 MEDIUM
CF Guide Gross ammonia production UNCHANGED guide ~9.5M tons vs. cons 9.5M tons (FY2026) HIGH
CF Guide Consolidated capital expenditures UNCHANGED guide ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.30B (FY2026) HIGH
CF Guide India urea import outlook LOWER guide ~9.5M metric tons vs. cons 11.0M metric tons (FY2026) MEDIUM
CF Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.2% MEDIUM
CF Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest Q2 beat is likely to be outweighed by softer out-period nitrogen assumptions: lower India import needs, returning Chinese exports and prospective Hormuz normalization imply FY2027 EPS revisions below the current ~$11.03 consensus, extending the initial negative residual move. MEDIUM