{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 net sales",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.52B vs. cons $2.47B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.62B vs. cons $1.58B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.84 vs. cons $5.70",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Gross ammonia production",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9.5M tons vs. cons 9.5M tons (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated capital expenditures",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.30B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "India urea import outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~9.5M metric tons vs. cons 11.0M metric tons (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.2,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.8,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest Q2 beat is likely to be outweighed by softer out-period nitrogen assumptions: lower India import needs, returning Chinese exports and prospective Hormuz normalization imply FY2027 EPS revisions below the current ~$11.03 consensus, extending the initial negative residual move.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}