| CF |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.92 vs. cons $5.70 |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Report |
Net sales |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.55B vs. cons $2.47B |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.10B vs. cons $1.05B |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Guide |
Full-year gross ammonia production outlook |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~9.5M tons vs. cons 9.5M tons (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| CF |
Guide |
Yazoo City production-restart timing |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~late 4Q26 vs. cons late 4Q26 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Guide |
Consolidated capital expenditures |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.30B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| CF |
Guide |
Implied full-year adjusted EBITDA / nitrogen-margin outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~$4.15B vs. cons $4.00B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+4.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A ~$50M EBITDA beat plus stronger implied FY2026 EBITDA of ~$4.15B versus ~$4.00B consensus should drive upward out-period estimates: higher realized nitrogen pricing and lower gas costs more than offset the unchanged ~9.5M-ton production outlook and Yazoo outage. |
MEDIUM |