{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$5.92 vs. cons $5.70",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net sales",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.55B vs. cons $2.47B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.10B vs. cons $1.05B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Full-year gross ammonia production outlook",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9.5M tons vs. cons 9.5M tons (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Yazoo City production-restart timing",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~late 4Q26 vs. cons late 4Q26 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated capital expenditures",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.30B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Implied full-year adjusted EBITDA / nitrogen-margin outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.15B vs. cons $4.00B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 4.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 6.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A ~$50M EBITDA beat plus stronger implied FY2026 EBITDA of ~$4.15B versus ~$4.00B consensus should drive upward out-period estimates: higher realized nitrogen pricing and lower gas costs more than offset the unchanged ~9.5M-ton production outlook and Yazoo outage.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}