| CF |
Report |
Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1,430M vs. cons $1,348M |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Report |
Avg. Realized Urea Price (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$620/ton vs. cons $592/ton |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Report |
Natural Gas Cost (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.75/MMBtu vs. cons $3.09/MMBtu |
HIGH |
| CF |
Guide |
FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA (implied) |
BETTER |
guide ~$4,363M implied vs. cons $4,239M |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Guide |
Fill Program Tone (qualitative) |
BETTER |
Bullish launch announced; strong fill demand cited |
HIGH |
| CF |
Guide |
Buyback Pace (qualitative) |
BETTER |
Accelerated pace signaled; $1.7B authorization to be deployed |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+6.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| CF |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+5.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
FOLLOW-THROUGH — sell-side revises Q3/Q4 up on FY implied beat; fill program launch anchors forward pricing |
MEDIUM |