{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,430M vs. cons $1,348M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Avg. Realized Urea Price (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$620/ton vs. cons $592/ton",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Natural Gas Cost (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.75/MMBtu vs. cons $3.09/MMBtu",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA (implied)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4,363M implied vs. cons $4,239M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fill Program Tone (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "Bullish launch announced; strong fill demand cited",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback Pace (qualitative)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "Accelerated pace signaled; $1.7B authorization to be deployed",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 6.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 5.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 sell-side revises Q3/Q4 up on FY implied beat; fill program launch anchors forward pricing",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}