CMI Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CMI Report EPS BEAT pred ~$7.55 vs. cons $7.19 MEDIUM
CMI Report Total revenue BEAT pred ~$9.55B vs. cons $9.32B MEDIUM
CMI Report Power Systems revenue BEAT pred ~$2.32B vs. cons $2.18B MEDIUM
CMI Guide FY2026 revenue growth guide (3rd raise?) BETTER guide ~+9% to +12% vs. cons +8% to +11% (FY2026) MEDIUM
CMI Guide FY2026 EBITDA margin guide BETTER guide ~18.0%-18.75% vs. cons 17.75%-18.5% (FY2026) LOW
CMI Guide Power Systems FY EBITDA margin (normalization off 29.5% Q1) UNCHANGED guide ~25%-26% vs. cons ~26% (FY2026); Q2 ~27% vs. cons ~26.5% MEDIUM
CMI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
CMI Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) Expect a clean beat plus a modest third guidance raise, driving a relief pop given the stock de-risked into the print (fell to ~$606 on 7/29 before recovering to ~$649). But the beat is H1-loaded while management keeps 2H largely unchanged, so the implied out-period run-rate is effectively trimmed; combined with the telegraphed Power Systems margin step-down from the 29.5% Q1 record and prebuy/EPA-2027 uncertainty, revisions lag the initial move and the pop partially fades. Data-center secular demand puts a floor under the fade rather than a full reversal. LOW