| CMI |
Report |
Total Revenue (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$9.48B vs. cons $9.32B |
MEDIUM |
| CMI |
Report |
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$7.45 vs. cons $7.19 |
MEDIUM |
| CMI |
Report |
Power Systems Segment EBITDA Margin (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~27.0% vs. cons ~26.5% (implied by guided step-down from Q1's 29.5%) |
LOW |
| CMI |
Guide |
FY2026 Total Revenue Growth Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~9.5% (reaffirm 8%-11% range midpoint) vs. cons 9.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CMI |
Guide |
FY2026 EBITDA Margin Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~18.1% (reaffirm 17.75%-18.50% range midpoint) vs. cons 18.1% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CMI |
Guide |
Power Systems FY2026 Segment EBITDA Margin Commentary/Data-Center Order Backlog |
BETTER |
guide ~26.0% (reaffirmed high-20s normalizing to guided range, with order backlog supporting >$9B 2030 data-center revenue target) vs. cons ~25.5% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| CMI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.6% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| CMI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.7% (FADE) |
A modest top/bottom-line beat plus reassuring data-center/backlog commentary should trigger a relief rally on day 1 given the stock's recent CAT-driven de-rating, but because guidance is likely reaffirmed rather than raised a third time (already raised at Q1 and at the May Analyst Day) and management continues to flag Power Systems margin normalization off Q1's record 29.5% level plus EPA2027 prebuy/cost uncertainty in Engine, out-period estimates get trimmed even after the beat. That implicit second-half margin give-back and lack of a fresh raise should cause the initial pop to partially fade over the following days as analysts true up FY EBITDA margin and Power Systems margin trajectories toward the lower end of ranges. |
LOW |