Report date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026, before the U.S. market open | Call: 10:00 a.m. ET
CMI shares have been volatile heading into the print. After running from the low-$600s in early May to a 52-week high above $725 in late June on data-center enthusiasm, the stock has pulled back to the mid-$600s, including an ~8-9% single-day drop on July 29 tied to sector-wide jitters after Caterpillar was downgraded by Baird, which cited mounting regulatory risks to data center expansion, including New York State's moratorium on data center construction, raising questions about the durability of the power-generation/data-center capex cycle that has been Cummins' single biggest growth driver. Shares have since stabilized around $635-$649, but the episode underscores that data-center-related sentiment (rather than fundamentals) has become a major swing factor for the stock.
Consensus into tomorrow's print, per the latest Street digest: total revenue growth of 7.9% to $9.32 billion, with Power Systems revenue expected to rise 15.5% to $2.18 billion, Engine revenue up 4.5% to $3.03 billion, Components up 3% to $2.78 billion, Distribution up 11.3% to $3.38 billion, and EPS of $7.19.
Cummins enters this print with significant momentum and raised guidance already on the table. In Q1 2026 (reported May 5), the company delivered revenues of $8.4 billion, GAAP net income of $654 million, EBITDA of 15.4% of sales, and diluted EPS of $4.71, which included $199 million (or $1.44/share) of charges tied to completing the sale of its low-pressure fuel cell business. Excluding those charges, EPS was $6.15 and EBITDA margin was 17.7%.
Critically, management raised full-year 2026 guidance at that time: full-year revenues were guided to a range of up 8% to up 11% (from prior guidance of up 3% to 8%), with EBITDA now expected in a range of 17.75% to 18.50%, up from previous guidance of 17.0% to 18.0%. The upgrade was driven by a faster-than-expected recovery in North America truck markets and accelerating power-generation/data-center demand. CEO Jennifer Rumsey noted the quarter was "led by record performance in our Power Systems segment," as demand for data center backup power remained robust and North America truck markets began improving from a cyclical low.
Then, on May 21, Cummins held an Analyst Day where it raised its 2030 targets: revenue is now expected to be in the range of $45 billion to $50 billion and EBITDA to exceed 20%, up from previous targets of $43 billion to $48 billion and 17%-18% margin. Management framed the growth algorithm as roughly "6% to 9% compound annual growth rate," coming from three roughly equal pillars: data-center power generation, content growth/on-highway recovery, and broader end-market/aftermarket growth. Power Systems announced a fresh "$450 million of investment to expand our high horsepower engine and genset capacity within our current footprint by 20 gigawatts, reaching a total of 55 gigawatts by 2030" and a plan to grow data center revenue "from $5 billion today to above $9 billion by 2030."
This backdrop of two consecutive positive catalysts (Q1 beat-and-raise, then Analyst Day target raise) sets a high bar for Q2 — investors will want confirmation that the momentum is continuing, not just guided.
Power Systems was the standout in Q1, with EBITDA margin at a record 29.5% of sales, up from 23.6% a year ago, driven by data center demand, favorable pricing, and one-time items. On the Q1 call, CFO Mark Smith cautioned that Q2 margins should normalize somewhat: "the rest of the year, you can back normal seasonality... there were a number of factors that contributed to margin performance above our expectations", including stronger China demand (weighted to H1), tariff recoveries, and one-time cost recoveries that won't repeat. Watch whether margins hold in the mid-to-high 20s or step down toward the 25-26% full-year guided range, and whether order/backlog commentary supports the raised 2030 data-center revenue target amid the recent CAT-related sentiment wobble on data-center regulatory risk.
Management flagged that heavy- and medium-duty truck demand troughed and began recovering faster than expected. On the Q1 call, Rumsey noted "we're adding a third shift at Rocky Mount... we really saw medium-duty demand improving starting in Q1 and quite strong here as we go to the second quarter. And then we're seeing heavy-duty stepping up". Engine business guidance was raised to revenue up 7% to 12% and EBITDA margin of 12.5% to 13.5% for 2026. Investors will look for confirmation of a strong Q2 step-up in Engine/Components volumes and margins, along with updated commentary on prebuy dynamics ahead of the EPA 2027 emissions transition (heavy-duty platforms X15/X10 launching in 2027; the B-Series/medium-duty platform was delayed to January 2028 pending final EPA rulemaking).
Accelera posted a Q1 EBITDA loss of $277 million (including the $199 million fuel-cell sale charge); excluding that, the underlying loss improved to $78 million from $86 million a year ago. Management guided full-year 2026 net losses (ex-charge) to a range of $270 million to $300 million, better than the previous projection of EBITDA losses of $325 million to $355 million, as the company narrows its zero-emissions focus toward e-mobility while winding down electrolyzer and fuel-cell commitments. Look for confirmation this loss-reduction trend is on/ahead of pace.
Tariff impact has so far been immaterial to consolidated EBITDA, with management indicating a "20 to 30 basis points full year impact" net headwind versus prior expectations, mostly concentrated in the Engine segment. Any change in this dynamic — particularly given ongoing legal challenges to various tariff regimes — is worth monitoring, along with price/cost commentary (described as "a very modest positive" in Q1).
Cummins returned $519 million to shareholders in Q1 (including $243 million of buybacks at an average price of $536.97, plus $276 million in dividends), consistent with its commitment to return roughly 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. Given the stock's pullback since Q1, watch for updated buyback pace/commentary.
China revenue (including JVs) grew strongly in Q1, driven largely by an 84% increase in power generation equipment sales in China due to accelerating data center demand, alongside solid export-driven truck/construction demand. Full-year China revenue guidance was raised to +10% (from a prior -1%). This diversification away from North America on-highway has become a key structural support for margins — confirmation of continued China/India/global power-gen strength would reinforce the bull case.
Upside catalysts: Another beat-and-raise on full-year guidance (following the pattern set in Q1); Power Systems margins holding up better than the guided step-down; commentary reaffirming the durability of data-center demand despite recent regulatory noise (state-level moratoriums, hyperscaler capex scrutiny); stronger-than-expected North America truck order momentum ahead of EPA 2027.
Downside risks: Any signs that data-center/power-gen order momentum is decelerating or that pricing/margins in Power Systems are reverting faster than guided; disappointing North America truck build rates or supply-chain constraints; slower progress on Accelera loss reduction; tariff or EPA-2027 regulatory uncertainty (the medium-duty B-Series delay to 2028) creating incremental cost or competitive risk; broader market skepticism about AI/data-center capex sustainability spilling over into industrial names with data-center power exposure (as seen with the CAT downgrade).
Cummins goes into Q2 earnings with unusually strong recent momentum — a beat-and-raise Q1, an Analyst Day that raised 2030 targets to $45-50B revenue and >20% EBITDA margin, and a North America truck cycle that is inflecting upward faster than expected. The main tension for investors is reconciling that fundamental strength with a stock that has round-tripped roughly 10-15% off its June highs on macro/sentiment concerns about data-center capex durability — concerns Cummins management has so far pushed back against with hard order and capacity-investment commitments (the $450M/20GW expansion announced in May). Tomorrow's print, and especially management's tone on Power Systems order books and North America truck build rates, should help settle which narrative — durable structural growth or cyclical/AI-capex fragility — is more accurate heading into the back half of 2026.