| COP |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.02 vs. cons $2.92 |
MEDIUM |
| COP |
Report |
Total Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$18.7B vs. cons $18.6B |
MEDIUM |
| COP |
Report |
Cash from Operations (CFO) |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.9B vs. cons $5.7B |
LOW |
| COP |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Production (MMBOED, ex-Qatar) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~2.20 vs. cons 2.19 MMBOED (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| COP |
Guide |
FY2026 Capex |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$12.3B vs. cons $12.3B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| COP |
Guide |
Capital Return (% of CFO) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~45% vs. cons 45% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| COP |
Guide |
Qatar N3/NFE-NFS restart timing |
LOWER |
guide ~early-2027 restart vs. cons late-2026 expectation (2027 outlook) |
LOW |
| COP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| COP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-0.8% (FADE) |
Q2 beat is largely a function of the April-May price spike and a depressed 2025 comp, but WTI has already round-tripped back to the mid-$70s by early August; forward-quarter (Q3) strip pricing is well below the Q2 average, so sell-side models will need to cut Q3/Q4 EPS and CFO even after a Q2 beat. Combined with lingering Qatar/NFE-NFS delay risk and no incremental capital-return upside beyond the already-known 45% framework, initial relief-rally gains should fade over the following days as out-period estimate cuts offset the headline beat. |
MEDIUM |