COP Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
COP Report 2Q26 adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.08 vs. cons $2.96 MEDIUM
COP Report 2Q26 total production IN-LINE pred ~2.205 MMBOED vs. cons 2.200 MMBOED HIGH
COP Report 2Q26 cash from operations excluding working capital BEAT pred ~$6.85B vs. cons $6.75B LOW
COP Guide 3Q26 total production guidance LOWER guide ~2.27 MMBOED vs. cons 2.34 MMBOED (3Q26) MEDIUM
COP Guide Full-year production guidance midpoint LOWER guide ~2.295 MMBOED vs. cons 2.310 MMBOED (FY26) MEDIUM
COP Guide Full-year capital spending guidance midpoint UNCHANGED guide ~$12.25B vs. cons $12.25B (FY26) HIGH
COP Guide Full-year adjusted operating-cost guidance BETTER guide ~$10.0B vs. cons $10.2B (FY26) MEDIUM
COP Guide Qatar production contribution LOWER guide ~20 MBOED vs. cons 40 MBOED (3Q26) LOW
COP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.2% MEDIUM
COP Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (FADE) The 2Q26 adjusted-EPS beat of ~$3.08 vs. $2.96 is likely to drive an initially positive reaction, but 3Q26 production guidance of ~2.27 MMBOED vs. 2.34 MMBOED and FY26 production of ~2.295 MMBOED vs. 2.310 MMBOED imply Qatar-related out-period estimate cuts that should absorb most of the day-1 gain. MEDIUM