COP Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
COP Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$2.34 vs. cons $2.25 MEDIUM
COP Report Total company production IN-LINE pred ~2.205 MMBOED vs. cons 2.200 MMBOED HIGH
COP Report Cash from operations, excluding working-capital effects BEAT pred ~$6.25B vs. cons $6.05B MEDIUM
COP Guide Full-year 2026 total company production UNCHANGED guide ~2.310 MMBOED vs. cons 2.310 MMBOED (FY2026) MEDIUM
COP Guide Full-year 2026 capital spending UNCHANGED guide ~$12.25B vs. cons $12.25B (FY2026) HIGH
COP Guide Full-year 2026 operating costs UNCHANGED guide ~$10.20B vs. cons $10.20B (FY2026) MEDIUM
COP Guide Shareholder-return objective as a share of CFO UNCHANGED guide ~45% of CFO vs. cons 45% of CFO (FY2026) HIGH
COP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
COP Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (STABILIZE) Day-1 residual ~+1.8% vs. day-5 residual ~+1.0%: a cash-flow/EPS beat and intact production framework should support the initial reaction, but unchanged ~$12.25B capital guidance and the still-demanding ~2.310 MMBOED full-year production target limit out-period estimate revisions and cap follow-through. MEDIUM