COP Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
COP Report Operating EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.10 vs. cons $2.95 (+5.1%) MEDIUM
COP Report Total Production (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~2,230 MBOED vs. cons 2,209 MBOED (+0.9%) MEDIUM
COP Report Free Cash Flow (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.85B vs. cons $3.62B (+6.4%) MEDIUM
COP Guide Q3 2026 Production (2026Q3) UNCHANGED guide ~2,280-2,310 MBOED vs. cons ~2,302 MBOED (~0%) MEDIUM
COP Guide FY 2026 Production (2026FY) UNCHANGED guide ~2,290-2,310 MBOED vs. cons 2,302 MBOED (~0%) MEDIUM
COP Guide FY 2026 CapEx (2026FY) UNCHANGED guide ~$12.0-$12.5B vs. cons $12.3B (~0%) HIGH
COP Guide LNG/Qatar Tone (qualitative, 2026FY) BETTER guide constructive; NFE delay months reiterated; structural LNG tightening thesis reinforced vs. feared further delay MEDIUM
COP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.5% MEDIUM
COP Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — sell-side models implicit H2 production cut, mild estimate drag; EPS beat partially offsets; no large cascade MEDIUM