{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.95 vs. cons $1.86",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Health Care Benefits MBR (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~89.9% vs. cons ~90.5%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$100.6B vs. cons $100.2B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.55-$7.65 vs. cons $7.50 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Enterprise Adjusted Operating Income",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$15.9B-$16.1B vs. cons $15.7B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Health Care Benefits MBR guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~90.5% +/-50bps vs. cons 90.4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H1/H2 earnings split & buyback signal commentary",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~60/40 split reaffirmed vs. cons expectation of 60/40 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.3,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 3.2,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely beat-and-raise on EPS/AOI driven by continued organic MBR improvement (not just reserve releases) should trigger positive out-period estimate revisions for 2027/2028 MA margin targets, extending gains over the week; however upside is capped since much of the Aetna turnaround is already priced in after the +30% YTD run and Q1 rally, so follow-through is modest rather than explosive, with risk of partial fade if MBR improvement is flagged as partly reserve-driven again.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}