DASH Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
DASH Report Marketplace GOV BEAT pred ~$33.5B vs. cons ~$32.9B MEDIUM
DASH Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$4.42B vs. cons ~$4.33B MEDIUM
DASH Report Adjusted EBITDA IN-LINE pred ~$840M vs. cons ~$835M MEDIUM
DASH Guide Q3'26 Marketplace GOV guide BETTER guide ~$34.6B vs. cons ~$34.1B (Q3'26) MEDIUM
DASH Guide Q3'26 Adjusted EBITDA guide LOWER guide ~$890M (mid) vs. cons ~$915M (Q3'26) MEDIUM
DASH Guide FY26 Adj. EBITDA margin framework (% of GOV) UNCHANGED guide ~2.6% vs. cons ~2.6% (FY26); reaffirm ex-Deliveroo slightly above 2025 + ~$200M Deliveroo MEDIUM
DASH Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.0% MEDIUM
DASH Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FADE) Stock ran ~+19% in two weeks and ~+38% off March lows into the print, so a likely GOV/revenue beat is already priced. The move-lower catalyst is margin: a heavy-spend year (gas relief >$50M/qtr, parallel tech replatforming, new-vertical build, drones/AV) means Adj. EBITDA lands only in-line and the Q3 EBITDA guide sits below consensus. Out-period math dominates — even after a top-line beat, analysts trim EBITDA/EPS estimates for the visible margin drag and GAAP profit erosion, so the initial sell-the-news dip follows through rather than recovers. LOW