{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Marketplace GOV (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$33.7B vs. cons ~$32.9B (guide midpoint)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$855M vs. cons ~$820M (guide midpoint)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.39B vs. cons $4.33B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Marketplace GOV guide (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$34.2B (implied $33.6B-$34.8B range) vs. cons ~$33.5B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA guide (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$885M (implied $840M-$930M range) vs. cons ~$850M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Dasher gas-relief program cost commentary (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$45M continued gross cost vs. cons/street expectation of ~$15M wind-down (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin framework (ex-GOV, full year)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~slightly higher than FY2025 margin (reaffirmed) vs. cons ~same slightly-higher framework (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "A GOV/EBITDA/revenue beat plus a better-than-feared Q3 GOV/EBITDA guide should drive an initial pop similar in kind (if smaller in magnitude) to the May post-Q1 rally, since the stock has already re-rated ~37% off its spring lows and much of the 'demand is fine' narrative is priced in. However, persistent gas-relief costs (elevated fuel prices from geopolitical risk), triple-tech-stack replatforming spend, and net revenue margin compression create implicit out-period estimate risk that should cap further follow-through as sell-side digests margin durability into 2H26/FY27 \u2014 net effect is an initial gain that mostly holds rather than extends or fully reverses over the next week.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}