DIS Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
DIS Report Total Segment Operating Income (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$5.45B vs. cons ~$5.30B MEDIUM
DIS Report Adjusted EPS (FQ3'26) BEAT pred ~$1.95 vs. cons ~$1.88 MEDIUM
DIS Report Experiences Segment OI / domestic attendance inflection IN-LINE pred Experiences OI ~$2.60B (attendance ~+1.5%) vs. cons ~$2.55B (attendance ~+0.5%) MEDIUM
DIS Guide FY26 adjusted EPS growth (ex-53rd week) UNCHANGED guide ~12% (reaffirm) vs. cons ~12% (FY26) MEDIUM
DIS Guide Q3 Sports segment OI (pre-announced headwind) UNCHANGED guide ~-14% YoY (~$890M) vs. cons ~-14% (~$890M) (FQ3'26) MEDIUM
DIS Guide Entertainment SVOD full-year operating margin BETTER guide ~10-11% vs. cons ~10% (FY26) LOW
DIS Guide FY26 share buyback pace UNCHANGED guide ~$8B vs. cons ~$8B (FY26) MEDIUM
DIS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +4.0% MEDIUM
DIS Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.0% (FADE) Clean OI/EPS beat plus a domestic attendance turn off depressed sentiment and near-52-week-low positioning should spark a relief pop day 1. But with management disciplined and likely only reaffirming (not raising) the ~12% ex-53rd-week FY26 EPS guide, beating Q3 mechanically raises the implied Q4 bar (out-period math), while the Sports OI decline and FCC/ABC license overhang cap enthusiasm. Estimates drift only modestly higher, so part of the day-1 move fades over the week toward a still-positive but smaller residual, supported by the ~$8B buyback. LOW