DIS Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
DIS Report Adjusted EPS (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$1.91 vs. cons $1.87 MEDIUM
DIS Report Total Segment Operating Income (Q3 FY26) BEAT pred ~$5.35B vs. cons $5.24B MEDIUM
DIS Report Experiences Segment Operating Income growth YoY BEAT pred ~+7% vs. cons ~+5% MEDIUM
DIS Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS growth (ex-53rd week) UNCHANGED guide ~12% vs. cons ~12% (FY26) MEDIUM
DIS Guide FY26 Share Repurchases UNCHANGED guide ~$8B+ vs. cons ~$8B (FY26) MEDIUM
DIS Guide Q4 FY26 Sports Segment Operating Income YoY BETTER guide ~-8% vs. cons ~-14% prior guide (Q4 FY26) LOW
DIS Guide FY27 Adjusted EPS growth UNCHANGED guide ~double-digit (~10%) vs. cons ~10% (FY27) LOW
DIS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.2% MEDIUM
DIS Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.7% (FADE) An EPS/segment-OI beat driven mainly by Experiences strength and a smaller-than-guided Sports OI decline should trigger an initial relief pop given depressed sentiment and the stock's 17% YTD drawdown, but the out-period math is unfavorable: FY26 guidance (12% EPS growth, $8B buyback) is merely reaffirmed rather than raised, Q4 still faces the bulk of NFL/ESPN rights-cost step-up and integration costs, and macro/oil risk to Experiences bookings remains unresolved. As sell-side models roll into Q4/FY27 with continued Sports cost drag and cautious park-attendance commentary, initial gains are likely to be partially unwound over the following days, producing fade rather than sustained follow-through. LOW