DVA Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
DVA Report Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$4.05 vs. cons ~$3.93 MEDIUM
DVA Report US dialysis treatments/day growth (volume) BEAT pred ~+55 bps vs. cons ~+40 bps MEDIUM
DVA Report Revenue per treatment / total revenue IN-LINE pred ~$3.53B vs. cons ~$3.50B LOW
DVA Guide FY26 Adjusted EPS guide BETTER guide ~$14.60-15.50 (mid ~$15.05) vs. cons ~$14.65 (FY26) MEDIUM
DVA Guide FY26 Adjusted Operating Income guide BETTER guide ~$2.20-2.30B (mid ~$2.25B) vs. cons ~$2.20B (FY26) MEDIUM
DVA Guide ACA enhanced-PTC headwind UNCHANGED guide ~$40M held (trending slightly favorable) vs. ~$40M cons (FY26; $70M 2027) MEDIUM
DVA Guide FY26 Free cash flow guide UNCHANGED guide ~$1.0-1.25B vs. cons ~$1.15B (FY26) LOW
DVA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% LOW
DVA Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FADE) Stock has ~doubled YTD and trades above the ~$199-217 target cluster with a Hold consensus, so a beat-and-raise is already priced; the day-before print (DVA -2.7% vs SPY +1.4%, ~-3% residual) shows de-risking. Even with another strong beat, out-period math is unfavorable: Q1 RPT strength was ~$6 timing, commercial mix erosion is expected to build in H2, G&A/tech spend rising, and the 2027 ACA cliff ($70M) caps upward revisions. Modest raises don't justify the run, so gains fade as estimates settle below the price. LOW