{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Non-GAAP EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.57 vs. cons $1.54",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.07B vs. cons $3.08B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total GMV (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$21.9B vs. cons $21.6B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 GMV growth ex-Depop (FX-neutral)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~7.0-7.5% vs. cons ~7.2% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 non-GAAP operating income growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9-11% vs. cons ~9.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 revenue guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.03-3.08B vs. cons ~$3.10B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Depop close timing / EPS dilution framework",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~1.5-2% FY EPS dilution vs. cons ~1.5-2% dilution (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Consensus (EPS $1.54, revenue $3.08B) now sits above the top of eBay's own Q2 guide ($1.46-1.51 EPS, $2.97-3.03B revenue), raising the bar versus prior quarters when consensus tracked the guide midpoint. This mirrors the Q1 2026 setup, where a genuine beat-and-raise print still produced a flat/slightly negative day-1 reaction (-0.3%) on deceleration optics, which then fully reversed into a +4-5% cumulative gain by day 5 once investors digested resilient US/focus-category/ad trends and no cut to FY GMV/OI guidance. Absent an outright miss or a formal cut to FY targets (unlike the Q3 2025 miss, which saw the initial -16% drop extend to -18.6% by day 5), the same implicit-cut-then-recovery pattern should apply: a soft/in-line headline reaction fades as analysts reconcile the beat against already-elevated numbers and refocus on the imminent Depop close and continued buybacks.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}