I'll research ED (Consolidated Edison) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent filings, earnings, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings release (2026 Q1) and the year-ago Q2 release, plus get recent news and stock price.Let me get the stock price trend and recent news/developments including the rate case.I have strong fundamentals. Let me quickly confirm the CECONY rate-plan ROE detail and any late-breaking Q2 expectations.# Con Edison (ED) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Con Edison heads into its seasonally smallest quarter as a "steady-eddie" regulated pure-play. The key questions aren't about the Q2 print itself — it's a low-EPS quarter with weather-normalized, decoupled revenues — but about whether management reaffirms 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20 and reinforces the 6–7% five-year EPS growth algorithm now that the new CECONY rate plan and MVP exit have reset the story.
1. Guidance reaffirmation is the whole ballgame. For 2026, Con Edison reaffirmed its adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP) to be in the range of $6.00 to $6.20 per share at Q1. That range represents ~5–9% growth over 2025's adjusted result, and management has framed the midpoint as the baseline for a durable growth trajectory. The company forecasts a five-year compounded annual adjusted EPS growth rate of 6% to 7% based on the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. Any reaffirmation (or, less likely, a narrowing/tightening) will drive the reaction more than the quarter's cents.
2. This is a small quarter — don't over-index on the headline. A year ago, Con Edison reported 2025 second quarter net income for common stock of $246 million or $0.68 a share compared with $202 million or $0.58 a share in the 2024 second quarter, with adjusted earnings of $240 million or $0.67 a share. Q2 typically contributes only ~12% of full-year EPS, so the earnings power comes from rate base growth flowing through the P&L, not seasonal demand.
3. Watch the year-over-year building blocks. ED's decoupled, weather-normalized revenue model means volumes don't drive results — under the revenue decoupling mechanisms, revenues are generally not affected by changes in delivery volumes, and gas and steam sales are subject to a weather normalization clause. Instead, focus on: higher electric/gas rate base, offset by higher O&M, interest expense, and share-count dilution. Q1 2026 was a preview of these crosscurrents — reported EPS rose but adjusted EPS slipped: 2026 first quarter net income was $924 million or $2.55 a share versus $791 million or $2.26 a year earlier, while adjusted earnings were $790 million or $2.18 a share compared with $792 million or $2.26 in the 2025 period. The adjusted decline was driven largely by equity dilution and higher O&M.
New CECONY rate plan underpins the growth algorithm. In January 2026, New York regulators approved new three-year electric and gas rate plans for CECONY. Per the company's disclosures and coverage, the plans carry a 9.40% authorized ROE and a 48% equity ratio, with staged electric base rate increases and roughly ~2.8% annual bill impacts. CFO Kirk Andrews noted the recently approved investment plans for CECONY include an increase in authorized ROE and provide the resources to continue infrastructure investment, describing the three-year rate plan as a solid foundation for the 6–7% EPS growth target. Expect management to reiterate this as the earnings-growth engine.
Exit from non-regulated/JV exposure is essentially complete. During the first quarter, Con Edison completed the sale of its interest in Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC for total consideration of $357.5 million. The MVP gain (~$0.37/share) is excluded from adjusted EPS, and the Honeoye strategic review continues. This makes ED an even purer regulated T&D play — a positive for the "quality/defensive" thesis but also removes an earnings kicker.
A large capital plan requires heavy financing — dilution is the swing factor. In 2026 and 2027, Con Edison expects to make capital investments of $6,595 million and $6,759 million, respectively, with $24,339 million in aggregate for 2028 through 2030. Funding this ~$38B five-year program leans on debt and equity: Con Edison plans to issue up to $1,100 million of common equity in 2026 and approximately $1,200 million in 2027, plus up to $3,300 million in aggregate during 2028–2030, in addition to equity under its DRIP, ESPP and incentive plans. To execute this, Con Edison launched a $2 billion at-the-market equity program in May 2026, and it settled a forward sale agreement for 7 million shares during the first quarter. Watch for updated equity-needs commentary — the pace/pricing of issuance is the biggest lever on per-share earnings and a key debate for the stock.
| Metric | Detail |
|---|---|
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $6.00–$6.20 (reaffirmed) |
| 5-yr adjusted EPS CAGR target | 6%–7% off 2026 midpoint |
| 2025 adjusted EPS (actual) | $5.70 (top end of guidance) vs. $5.40 in 2024 |
| Q2'25 adjusted EPS (year-ago comp) | $0.67 |
| Q1'26 adjusted EPS | $2.18 (down from $2.26) |
| CECONY authorized ROE / equity ratio | 9.40% / 48% |
| 2026–2030 capex | ~$38B ($6.6B in 2026) |
| Dividend | Increased for the 52nd straight year |
Dividend aristocrat credentials intact. ED remains one of the longest-standing dividend growers in the market, which anchors its appeal to income-focused utility investors.
ED shares closed at $108.35 on Aug 5, 2026, up meaningfully from ~$104 a year ago. The stock ran to the mid-$115s in February–March 2026 on the rate-plan approval and rate-sensitivity tailwinds, then drifted back into the $108–$112 range over the summer — a roughly ~4% pullback in the days heading into the print. The move has broadly tracked the utilities sector (XLU), consistent with ED trading as a rate-sensitive, low-beta defensive name where macro (Fed path, 10-year yields) matters as much as company fundamentals.
For a regulated utility like ED, the Q2 number itself is rarely the catalyst — it's a small quarter governed by decoupled, weather-normalized revenues. The investable questions are whether management holds the $6.00–$6.20 guide and the 6–7% growth algorithm, and how it manages the substantial equity issuance needed to fund a ~$38B capital plan. With the CECONY rate plan locked in at a 9.40% ROE and the MVP overhang resolved, the setup favors a "steady, in-line, reaffirm" outcome — the risk is a soft cost quarter or heavier-than-expected equity needs pressuring the per-share growth story.
Note: I was unable to retrieve a published sell-side consensus EPS estimate for the quarter from the available tools; the framing above uses ED's own historical seasonality and year-ago comparatives rather than a formal consensus number.