Report Date: Thursday, August 6, 2026 (after market close) Current Price: ~$108 (as of Aug 5, 2026) | FY2026 Guidance: $6.00–$6.20 adjusted EPS
Con Edison has traded in a fairly tight range this summer, running from roughly $104 in early June to a high near $113 in late July before pulling back to ~$108 heading into the report — broadly tracking the utility sector's rate-sensitive rotation. The stock is up modestly year-to-date but sentiment among sell-side analysts is split: coverage is a mix of "Hold" and polarized bull/bear calls, with the average price target only slightly above current levels, suggesting the market sees limited near-term catalysts beyond the steady, regulated growth story.
Consensus expectations for Q2 2026: - EPS: ~$0.74–$0.75 (vs. $0.67 adjusted in Q2 2025), implying ~10–12% y/y growth - Revenue: ~$3.7 billion - FY2026 consensus EPS: ~$6.09, within the company's $6.00–$6.20 guided range - FY2027 consensus EPS: ~$6.42
ED has beaten Street EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters, but the most recent print (Q1 2026, reported May 7) saw adjusted EPS of $2.18 come in below both the prior-year figure ($2.26) and expectations, even though GAAP EPS jumped to $2.55 on a one-time MVP gain — a useful reminder that headline GAAP numbers this cycle are being distorted by portfolio-cleanup transactions (see below).
Con Edison's Q1 2026 net income for common stock was $924 million ($2.55/share GAAP) versus $791 million ($2.26/share) a year earlier, but adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS was $2.18, essentially flat versus $2.26 in Q1 2025. The GAAP/adjusted gap was driven by a $134 million after-tax gain on the completed sale of Con Edison's ~6.6% equity stake in Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) for $357.5 million, which management strips out of adjusted results.
Underlying utility performance was mixed: higher electric and gas rate base at CECONY added $0.08/share, but this was offset by higher O&M expense (+$0.08 drag), higher interest expense on long-term debt (-$0.03), higher corporate expenses (-$0.01), and continued dilution from equity issuance (-$0.08). O&R contributed a modest +$0.01. Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20 despite the soft Q1 adjusted print, citing confidence in the back half of the three-year rate plan.
Key things to watch repeating in Q2: the same dilution drag from equity issuance (a 7-million-share forward sale settled for $776 million in March, plus a new $2 billion ATM program launched in May) will continue to weigh on per-share growth even as rate base grows; and O&M cost inflation (health care, injuries & damages, insurance) has been a recurring theme investors will want to see moderate.
ED remains in the middle of a heavy, multi-year capital program. At year-end guidance (from the Q4/FY2025 release), the company plans capital investments of $6.6 billion in 2026 and $6.76 billion in 2027, with $24.3 billion aggregate for 2028–2030 — funded through internally generated cash, long-term debt (~$3.2B planned in 2026 at the Utilities) and common equity (~$1.1B planned in 2026, including the ATM program). This equity-heavy funding mix is precisely what's driving the share-count dilution dragging on per-share growth even as the rate base compounds. Investors should watch for updated capex/financing guidance and any commentary on how the company balances growth funding against dilution.
On the balance sheet, Con Edison's common equity ratio improved to 50.0% at March 31, 2026 from 48.6% at year-end 2025, and the company refinanced into a new $3.5 billion revolving credit facility in March 2026 (replacing prior facilities), with no borrowings outstanding under it as of Q1. CECONY also prepaid a $500 million term loan early in Q1. Watch for updated commercial paper balances and any credit-rating commentary, given rising short-term financing needs tied to elevated capex and slow-recovering aged receivables.
Con Edison has been unwinding its non-core equity investments. The MVP sale closed in Q1 2026 for total consideration of $357.5 million. In April 2026, CECONY and Con Edison Transmission also agreed to sell their combined interest in Honeoye Storage Corporation for just $5 million in aggregate (pending NYSPSC approval) — a small, cleanup transaction that nonetheless signals continued focus on the core regulated New York/New Jersey utility franchise rather than merchant pipeline/storage assets. Expect these divestitures to be non-repeating and non-core to the ongoing earnings run-rate story, but they will keep showing up as GAAP-to-adjusted reconciling items this year.
As a rate-regulated utility, ED's earnings power is fundamentally a function of rate base growth and allowed ROE, and there are several live regulatory threads to track:
Con Edison recently extended its dividend growth streak to 52 consecutive years, raising the quarterly dividend to $0.8875/share (a 4.4% annualized increase, declared July 2026, payable September 15). Management targets a 55–65% payout ratio of adjusted earnings and has guided to a 5-year adjusted EPS CAGR of 6–7% off the 2026 guidance midpoint — the central long-term thesis for income-oriented holders of the stock. Watch for any commentary reaffirming this long-term growth algorithm on the call.
ED remains a low-volatility, regulated-utility compounder whose quarterly results are driven far more by rate base growth, allowed ROE, and financing mix than by weather or commodity swings (thanks to decoupling mechanisms). The Q2 print itself is unlikely to be a major surprise generator — consensus expects a clean ~11% y/y EPS increase to ~$0.74–$0.75 — but investors should focus less on the headline beat/miss and more on: (1) whether management reaffirms full-year guidance and the 6–7% five-year EPS CAGR target, (2) the trajectory of O&M cost pressures and dilution from ongoing equity issuance, and (3) any incremental color on New York's regulatory and reliability backdrop that underpins the multi-year, multi-billion-dollar capital program.