Timing clarification: Con Edison is scheduled to report today, Thursday, August 6, 2026, after the market closes—not tomorrow. (investor.conedison.com)
For ED, the headline Q2 EPS figure is less important than three broader questions:
A quarter near consensus accompanied by an uncomplicated guidance reaffirmation would probably be sufficient. The more bullish outcome would combine an EPS beat with confidence toward the upper half of guidance and evidence that operating expenses are normalizing. Conversely, lower-end guidance language, additional equity needs, or unexpectedly high reliability-related costs would be the main downside risks.
| Metric | Current expectation/context |
|---|---|
| Q2 adjusted EPS consensus | Approximately $0.74–$0.76 |
| Q2 2025 adjusted EPS | $0.67 |
| Implied adjusted EPS growth | Roughly 10%–13% |
| Revenue consensus | Approximately $3.5–$3.6 billion |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $6.00–$6.20 |
| 2026 consensus EPS | About $6.09 |
| August 5 closing price | $108.35 |
| Valuation at guidance midpoint | Approximately 17.8x |
| Annualized dividend | $3.55 per share |
| Indicated dividend yield | Approximately 3.3% |
Published estimates differ slightly by provider: Barchart shows a $0.74 average EPS estimate, while Benzinga and MarketBeat indicate roughly $0.76. Revenue estimates range from about $3.46 billion to $3.60 billion. (benzinga.com)
Revenue is a secondary indicator for ED because regulated revenue-decoupling, weather-normalization, and commodity-cost recovery mechanisms reduce the connection between reported revenue, delivery volumes, and underlying profitability. Investors should focus primarily on adjusted EPS, regulated returns, expense execution, financing, and guidance.
Con Edison reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.18, down from $2.26 a year earlier and below the roughly $2.28 consensus estimate. The company nevertheless reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20. (benzinga.com)
The underlying earnings bridge illustrated the central tension in the ED story:
Positive drivers
Offsets
Q1 also included a sizable GAAP gain from the sale of ED’s Mountain Valley Pipeline interest. Investors should therefore use adjusted, rather than GAAP, results to judge ongoing performance.
Management entered Q2 with a $6.00–$6.20 adjusted EPS forecast. At the midpoint, that represents about 7% growth from 2025 adjusted EPS of $5.70.
Q1 adjusted EPS plus Q2 consensus would equal approximately $2.93, leaving $3.17 to reach the guidance midpoint in the second half. That is achievable given ED’s normal earnings seasonality, but it leaves limited room for broad-based cost overruns.
Listen for whether management:
For this stock, the qualitative guidance message could matter more than a few cents of quarterly EPS variance.
ED’s investment case rests on unusually visible regulated growth. Its Q1 presentation projected:
New CECONY electric and gas rate plans took effect at the beginning of 2026, providing three years of rate certainty. At March 31, CECONY’s actual regulated electric return on equity was 9.10%, versus 9.29% authorized, while gas earned 9.52%.
The key Q2 question is whether the first-year benefits of those plans are becoming more visible after Q1’s higher expenses obscured rate-base growth. Investors should watch:
A solid report should demonstrate that investment growth is producing earnings growth—not merely expanding the financing requirement.
In Q1, higher CECONY O&M reduced year-over-year EPS by approximately $0.08, more than offsetting the combined benefit from higher electric and gas rate base.
That makes the Q2 expense bridge especially important. Relevant line items include:
The July heatwave occurred after the June 30 quarter-end, so most direct costs should affect Q3 rather than Q2. However, management’s commentary may alter investors’ expectations for the second half.
ED’s system faced an intense operational test shortly after Q2 ended. During the early-July heatwave, the company reported restoring more than 60,000 customers affected by scattered heat-related outages. Heat was followed by severe thunderstorms, and approximately 173,700 customers were ultimately affected by the combined extreme-weather events; ED reported that 166,800 had been restored by late July 5. (coned.com)
This matters beyond immediate restoration expense. Management may be asked about:
ED announced before the summer that it was investing $3.9 billion in system upgrades for summer 2026, making the operational response—and management’s explanation of it—a meaningful credibility test. (coned.com)
ED has a capital-intensive growth plan, and equity issuance is part of the funding model.
During Q1, the company issued 7 million shares for approximately $776 million, against a stated 2026 common-equity plan of up to $1.1 billion. (investor.conedison.com)
On May 8, ED also established a $2 billion at-the-market equity program, with proceeds intended primarily to fund subsidiary capital requirements and general corporate purposes. (investor.conedison.com)
The program itself is not necessarily a negative—it supports regulated investment and balance-sheet strength—but it raises several questions:
A surprise acceleration in issuance could pressure per-share growth, even if total regulated earnings remain healthy.
CECONY requested a $66 million steam rate increase beginning November 1, 2026, based on a proposed 9.9% ROE and 48% equity ratio. New York Department of Public Service staff supported only an $18 million increase, with a 9.3% ROE and 47.5% equity ratio. (investor.conedison.com)
Steam is a relatively small part of ED, but the outcome may provide another signal regarding regulatory support, affordability concerns, and authorized returns.
At March 31, CECONY had approximately $1.35 billion of customer receivables more than 60 days past due. That was modestly better than year-end but remained far above pre-pandemic levels.
Investors should watch for:
Through August 5, ED had gained roughly 8.4% in 2026, compared with about 1.1% for the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF. The shares ended August 5 at $108.35.
At that price, ED trades at approximately:
The annualized $3.55 dividend provides a yield of approximately 3.3%. The July dividend declaration maintained the quarterly payment at $0.8875 per share. (investor.conedison.com)
That valuation is not obviously distressed, particularly after ED’s year-to-date outperformance. Investors may therefore require more than a routine consensus beat to drive a sustained advance. Guidance quality, financing discipline, and the July reliability discussion are likely to determine the reaction.
This would confirm the long-term thesis but might produce only a modest stock reaction.
ED enters the report with a credible regulated-growth story, favorable multiyear rate visibility, and an attractive record of dividend growth. But the stock has already outperformed utilities in 2026, while Q1 exposed the pressure from O&M, interest expense, and dilution.
The most important outcome is therefore not whether Q2 EPS beats consensus by a few cents. It is whether management can show that:
An in-line quarter with clean guidance should preserve the thesis. A guidance-positive report with better expense execution could support further upside; a lower-end bias combined with higher financing or reliability costs would challenge the current valuation.