Timing note: The event date supplied is August 6, 2026. Since today is also Thursday, August 6, 2026, this preview treats the report as due today, rather than tomorrow.
For Con Edison, the headline quarterly EPS print is less important than three questions:
ED entered 2026 with strong regulated-growth visibility: its five-year forecast called for an 8.8% CAGR in regulated investment base through 2030, supported by a sharply increasing capital program. Management forecasts utility capital investment of $6.53 billion in 2026, rising to $8.57 billion by 2030. The report should therefore be read primarily as an execution update on that investment and financing plan—not as a demand-sensitive utility quarter.
In 1Q26, ED reported $2.55 of GAAP EPS, but that included a $0.37-per-share gain on the sale of its Mountain Valley Pipeline stake. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $2.18, down from $2.26 a year earlier.
The core message was less favorable than the GAAP number implied:
That makes 2Q a test of whether 1Q cost and financing pressure was temporary/noisy or a more durable drag on the path to the midpoint of guidance.
ED has unusually high visibility into regulated investment growth:
The positive 2Q read-through would be continued capex deployment without material project-cost, supply-chain, or affordability friction. ED’s 2026 plan already embeds a substantial step-up in investment, particularly in CECONY electric infrastructure.
Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.00–$6.20 in May. A reaffirmation would indicate that the company still sees rate-base growth, new rate plans, and operational execution as sufficient to absorb known headwinds.
A raise is possible but not the base case: ED’s model favors steady annual delivery rather than frequent upward revisions, and the company faces elevated financing and customer-affordability considerations. Conversely, any guide-down—or even unusually qualified reaffirmation—would likely matter more than a modest quarterly EPS beat or miss.
ED physically settled a forward equity sale for 7 million shares in 1Q26, generating approximately $776 million. That strengthened funding for the capital program, but it also created the $0.08/share year-over-year dilution headwind in the first quarter.
Investors should focus on:
Higher interest rates are particularly relevant to ED’s valuation and earnings mechanics: the company has a large, growing capital program and must continuously finance construction spending. ED closed at $108.35 on August 5, up about 9.1% year to date, but roughly 4.9% below its July 2 closing high of $113.99.
1Q adjusted EPS was pressured by higher O&M. The main question is whether 2Q shows better cost discipline, particularly in CECONY operations, employee-related costs, and storm/reliability spending.
Constructive outcome: O&M is controlled while the company sustains reliability and capex deployment.
Negative outcome: Costs remain elevated enough that rate-base growth no longer translates efficiently into earnings growth.
This is the most important nontraditional risk in the story. At March 31:
While current rate mechanisms provide meaningful reconciliation and recovery protections for uncollectibles, high receivables can pressure liquidity, increase political scrutiny, and complicate future rate cases. Commentary on collections trends, bad-debt expense, and cash conversion is important.
The NYISO identified New York City reliability needs beginning in summer 2026 and continuing through 2030. This is both a risk and an opportunity:
Investors should watch for updated load forecasts, progress on the New York City reliability contingency plan, and any incremental capex implications.
Three regulatory items are worth monitoring:
ED’s second quarter is typically much smaller than its winter-heavy first quarter. In 2Q25, adjusted EPS was $0.67, versus $2.26 in 1Q25; 2Q represented only about 11.8% of that year’s eventual adjusted EPS of $5.70.
That means investors should put more weight on:
| More constructive read | More cautious read |
|---|---|
| Reaffirms $6.00–$6.20 adjusted EPS guidance cleanly | Narrows guidance, signals pressure around the midpoint, or introduces caveats |
| Rate-base growth and new rate plans visibly offset O&M and interest | O&M and financing costs continue to outpace regulated earnings growth |
| Capex is on plan, with no material financing change | Higher equity/debt needs or signs of credit-metric deterioration |
| Receivables and collections stabilize or improve | Aged receivables rise materially or cash conversion weakens |
| Reliability needs translate into clear, recoverable investment opportunities | Reliability, affordability, or project-timing issues create political or execution risk |
| Constructive update on steam/RECO regulatory matters | Unfavorable regulatory signals or delayed resolutions |
ED remains a regulated-infrastructure growth and income story, underpinned by a large New York-area rate base, electrification-led investment needs, and long-standing dividend growth. The investment debate into 2Q is whether that attractive long-term setup can translate into near-term EPS growth after 1Q showed that higher operating costs, interest expense, and dilution can temporarily overwhelm rate-base benefits.
The cleanest positive outcome is a guidance reaffirmation paired with evidence that 1Q’s cost and dilution headwinds are contained. The biggest risk is not commodity exposure—much of that is passed through—but rather a combination of persistent cost pressure, elevated receivables, financing requirements, and regulatory affordability constraints.