Report date: Thursday, August 6, 2026 (before market open) | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
| Last close (8/5/26) | ~$83.08 |
| 52-week range | ~$70.42 – $88.62 |
| 1-year total price return vs. XLU | +13.7% vs. +1.1% |
| YTD 2026 return vs. XLU | +13.7% vs. +1.1% |
| Consensus Q2'26 adjusted EPS | ~$0.82–$0.87 (vs. $0.82 in Q2 2025) |
| Company's own implied Q2 guide | ~$0.72–$0.81 (17–19% of $4.24 FY midpoint) |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.14–$4.34 (midpoint $4.24) |
Evergy shares have meaningfully outpaced the utility sector over the past year, driven by an accelerating data-center/large-load growth story, though the stock has pulled back about 6% from its early-July peak of ~$88 amid a broader summer pullback in utilities.
Evergy's Q1 2026 print (reported May 7) was strong on a headline basis: adjusted EPS of $0.69 versus $0.55 a year earlier, beating the Zacks consensus of $0.63. The beat was driven by rate-base recovery, weather-normalized demand growth, and large-load revenue, even as mild winter weather cost roughly $0.06 of EPS versus budget. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.14–$4.34 and, notably, raised the long-term retail load-growth CAGR to 7–8% through 2030 (from 6% previously) after signing a fifth large-customer electric service agreement (ESA) — a new Kansas Central data center project — and amending two existing ESAs to reflect higher usage from those customers.
Critically, management said the incremental margin from the new/amended ESAs is expected to fully offset the Q1 weather shortfall, positioning the company to hit the $4.24 FY midpoint. That's the central storyline investors will be checking on tomorrow's call: did the offset materialize, and is the full-year number still tracking to plan?
Evergy explicitly guided second-quarter adjusted EPS to 17–19% of the $4.24 full-year midpoint, which implies roughly $0.72–$0.81 per share. Sell-side consensus, however, is running a bit ahead of that internal marker — recent trackers show estimates clustering around $0.82 (flat year-over-year) to as high as $0.87 (+6.1% y/y), against a $0.82 adjusted EPS base in Q2 2025. Revenue consensus sits around $1.36–$1.47 billion. Evergy has beaten Zacks consensus in two of the last four quarters (including a large Q1'26 beat) but missed by a wide margin one quarter ago, so there is genuine two-sided risk into the print. The gap between management's own sequential-guidance math and the higher external consensus is worth watching — a print at the high end of Street numbers would represent a clean beat versus the company's own framework, while a print merely in line with the $0.72–$0.81 range could be read as a "miss" relative to consensus even if it's tracking the internal plan.
Weather will again be a swing factor: Q2 is a shoulder/early-cooling-season quarter, and after a mild Q1 winter, investors will want clarity on cooling-degree-day trends across Kansas and Missouri through June, plus confirmation that industrial/data-center ramps (Panasonic, the March-energized data center) are proceeding on schedule.
This remains the dominant driver of the equity story. As of the Q1 call, Evergy had five signed large-customer ESAs (including counterparties tied to Google and Meta) totaling roughly 3 gigawatts of peak demand when combined with non-LLPS customers like Panasonic — up 600 MW from the prior quarter's disclosure. Management guided to at least one additional ESA signing in 2026, on top of a pipeline it characterizes in tiers: Tier 1 expansion opportunities (1–1.5 GW) with existing signed customers, Tier 2 advanced discussions (1.5–3 GW), and a broader pipeline exceeding 10 GW. The 5-year rate-base CAGR was lifted to ~12% (from 11.5%) and credit metrics (FFO-to-debt) improved to a 14–15% range for 2026–2028, aided by a constructive Kansas settlement to flow back over $100 million/year of nuclear production tax credits to customers.
For Q2, investors should listen for: (1) any update/confirmation on the "at least one more ESA in 2026" signal, including possible naming of the hyperscaler offtaker behind the newest Kansas Central data center; (2) progress on the 2026 Integrated Resource Plans filed in Kansas and Missouri during Q2, which will detail generation additions (gas, storage, solar) needed to serve the expanded load forecast; and (3) any incremental capital-plan upsizing tied to the "preferred plan" IRP outcomes, which management flagged as likely modest upside to the existing $21.6 billion five-year capital plan.
Evergy has been active in capital markets ahead of this print, which should reduce financing-related questions but is worth flagging for context: - July 1, 2026: Evergy Kansas Central issued $350 million of 5.300% First Mortgage Bonds due 2036. - June 30, 2026: Evergy replaced its prior $2.5 billion credit facility and a $1 billion delayed-draw term loan with a new $3.5 billion revolving credit facility (expandable to $4.5 billion) maturing 2031, with no early-termination penalties — a move that strengthens liquidity as capex ramps. - Equity plan is unchanged at $700–$900 million/year of issuance from 2026–2029 (~$3.3 billion cumulative), funded via the ATM rather than a block deal, with no equity need anticipated in 2030 as credit metrics strengthen.
Watch for any updated commentary on financing cadence given the larger capital plan implied by the newest ESAs.
Analysts remain fairly bullish on EVRG, with the stock earning a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating. Among 14 analysts covering the stock, seven recommend a "Strong Buy," one rates it a "Moderate Buy," while six suggest a "Hold," with an average price target of $92.62 implying upside from current levels. The stock trades at a premium to its own five-year average multiple, reflecting the market's willingness to pay up for the data-center growth optionality, but that also raises the bar for the quarter — any signs of ESA slippage, cost overruns, or regulatory friction in Missouri/Kansas could pressure the multiple given how much growth is now priced in.
Evergy heads into Thursday's print with strong underlying momentum: a raised long-term load-growth outlook, an expanding roster of data-center ESAs, improving credit metrics, and freshly refinanced/extended liquidity. The main swing factors for the print itself are (1) whether Q2 EPS clears the higher Street bar rather than just the company's own conservative sequential guide, and (2) fresh detail on IRP filings and the next ESA signing that would extend the growth runway further into the 2030s. Given how much of the growth story is already reflected in the stock's outperformance over the last year, execution and incremental large-load news will likely matter more than the quarterly EPS delta itself.