Company | Evergy, Inc. |
Ticker | EVRG (NASDAQ) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | August 6, 2026 — 9:00 AM ET |
Prepared | August 5, 2026 |
Last Earnings | May 7, 2026 (Q1 2026) |
Key Takeaway: Setup is constructive but not stretched — consensus sits at a modest bar (~$0.81 adj. EPS vs. Q2 guidance of 17–19% of the $4.24 midpoint, implying ~$0.72–$0.80), management guided explicitly for Q2 at the Q1 call, and the stock has already rallied ~6% since last earnings, suggesting the market is pricing in execution rather than a beat. The single biggest swing factor is whether management announces a sixth ESA or provides incremental load-ramp color that moves the long-term growth narrative.
Heading into Q2 2026 results, the bar for Evergy is achievable but not low: management guided Q2 adjusted EPS at 17–19% of the $4.24 midpoint (implying roughly $0.72–$0.80), and consensus at ~$0.81 sits modestly above the top of that range, reflecting some optimism around ESA amendment revenues and weather-normalized demand. Guidance tone has been increasingly confident — the Q1 call featured a raised load growth forecast (7–8% CAGR through 2030, up from 6%), a fifth ESA announcement, and two ESA amendments that pulled forward 2026 margin, all of which management characterized as upside to the financial plan. Estimate revisions have been choppy: the 2Q26 EPS consensus peaked near $1.10 in late 2025, drifted down to ~$0.84 post-Q1, and has since settled around $0.81, suggesting the street has absorbed the Q1 guidance range but has not yet priced in incremental ESA upside. The stock has outperformed XLU since the May 7 print (EVRG +0.4% vs. XLU −3.2% indexed), reflecting the market’s willingness to pay for the data center growth story, though the multiple is no longer cheap. The key wildcard is a sixth ESA announcement or expansion disclosure from an existing customer — management explicitly flagged “at least one additional ESA in 2026” as upside to the plan, and any such announcement would likely re-rate the stock toward the upper end of its peer premium.
Key Takeaway: Consensus at ~$0.81 adj. EPS sits modestly above management’s guided range of $0.72–$0.80, making EPS the tighter bar; revenue consensus of ~$1.45B is broadly in line with the prior-year Q2 actual of $1.45B, leaving weather-normalized volume and large-customer revenue as the key swing factors.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Adj. EPS (Operating) | $0.69 | $0.82 | $0.81 | −1.2% | 17–19% of $4.24 midpoint (~$0.72–$0.80) | +1–+13% above top of range |
Total Revenue | $1,444M | $1,437M | $1,453M | +1.1% | No specific Q2 revenue guidance provided | N/A |
Total Volume (GWh) | 13,584 GWh | 14,125 GWh | 16,636 GWh | +17.8% | 7–8% weather-normalized retail load growth CAGR through 2030 | N/A (annual metric) |
Capital Expenditures | $952M | $636M | $952M | +49.7% | ~$3.6B FY2026 (per plan) | On track |
FFO/Debt (%) | 1.79% (quarterly; FY target 14–15%) | 2.19% (quarterly) | 3.28% (quarterly consensus) | +109 bps | 14–15% FY2026–2028 | N/A (annual metric) |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS-Diluted - Operating($), Total revenue, Total volume(GWh), Capital expenditures, FFO/Debt(%)); Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript (May 7, 2026) for guidance ranges. Q2 2026 consensus as of August 5, 2026. Q2 2025 and Q1 2026 actuals from Visible Alpha.
Quarter | Reported Adj. EPS | Consensus at Print | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | $0.69 | $0.62 | +11.3% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $0.42 | $0.57 | −26.3% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | $2.03 | $2.00 | +1.5% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $0.82 | $1.07 | −23.4% | Miss |
Q1 2025 | $0.55 | $0.69 | −20.3% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | $0.35 | $0.40 | −12.5% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | $2.02 | $1.92 | +5.2% | Beat |
Q2 2024 | $0.90 | $0.91 | −1.1% | Slight Miss |
Pattern: EVRG has a mixed beat/miss record over the last 8 quarters (3 beats, 5 misses), with misses concentrated in Q1 and Q4 (weather-sensitive quarters) and beats in Q3 (peak summer demand); Q1 2026 was a notable beat driven by ESA amendment revenues offsetting mild winter weather, suggesting the company is developing better tools to manage weather volatility. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS-Diluted - Operating($)).
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call (May 7, 2026) — full-year adj. EPS reaffirmed at $4.14–$4.34 — but tone has shifted meaningfully more confident, with management raising the long-term load growth forecast and rate base CAGR and flagging at least one additional ESA in 2026 as upside to the plan.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call, May 7, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY2026 Adj. EPS | $4.14–$4.34 (midpoint $4.24) | — | $4.24 | Reaffirmed at Q1 print; no post-earnings revision. Consensus at midpoint. |
Q2 2026 Adj. EPS | 17–19% of $4.24 midpoint (~$0.72–$0.80) | — | $0.81 | Consensus sits ~1–13% above top of guided range; reflects ESA amendment revenue pull-forward optimism. |
Long-Term EPS Growth | 6–8%+ annually through 2030 off $4.24 midpoint; >8% from 2028–2030 | — | N/A (long-term target) | Raised at Q1 call from prior 6% load growth to 7–8% CAGR; rate base CAGR raised to ~12% from ~11.5%. |
Retail Load Growth CAGR (2025–2030) | ~7–8% annually (raised from 6% at Q4 2025 call) | — | N/A | ↑ Raised at Q1 2026 call; driven by 5 signed ESAs (~2.5 GW LLPS) + Panasonic (~450 MW) = ~3 GW Tier 1 demand. |
Equity Issuance Plan | $700M–$900M/year, 2026–2029 via ATM; no block issuance; no equity needs in 2030 | — | N/A | Unchanged; $125M already priced in 2026. Management flagged potential to moderate equity needs by hundreds of millions as ESA cash flows materialize. |
FFO/Debt Target | 14–15% from 2026–2028; strengthening thereafter | — | ~14.3% FY2026 consensus | Raised from prior ~14% estimate at Q4 2025 call; reflects ESA amendment benefits and nuclear PTC flowback impact. |
Missouri Metro Rate Case | Filed Feb 6, 2026; new rates effective ~Jan 1, 2027 | — | N/A | Staff/intervenor testimony due June 30; settlement conferences Sept 23–24; hearings begin Oct 5. On schedule. |
Source: Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript (May 7, 2026); Q1 2026 Press Release; Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS-Diluted - Operating($), FFO/Debt(%)). No post-Q1 guidance revisions were filed via 8-K or conference update.
Key Takeaway: FY2026 adj. EPS estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print (+0.5% from $4.22 to $4.24), tracking management’s reaffirmed guidance midpoint — no meaningful revision momentum in either direction. Q2 2026 estimates drifted down ~3.8% post-Q1 (from $0.84 to $0.81), likely reflecting the market digesting the guided range; the gap between consensus ($0.81) and the top of guidance ($0.80) is thin and represents modest upside risk if ESA revenues surprise.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Print (c. May 14, 2026) | Current Consensus (Aug 5, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Adj. EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.843 | $0.812 | −3.7% | 17–19% of $4.24 (~$0.72–$0.80) | Unchanged | — | +1–+13% above top of range |
Adj. EPS — FY2026 | $4.216 | $4.235 | +0.5% | $4.14–$4.34 (midpoint $4.24) | Unchanged | — | At midpoint; within range |
Total Revenue — Q2 2026 | $1,395M | $1,453M | +4.2% | No specific Q2 guidance | N/A | — | N/A |
Total Revenue — FY2026 | $6,214M | $6,239M | +0.4% | No specific FY revenue guidance | N/A | — | N/A |
CapEx — FY2026 | $3,806M | $3,633M | −4.5% | ~$21.6B 5-year plan (modest upside flagged) | Unchanged | — | N/A (annual plan metric) |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS-Diluted - Operating($), Total revenue, Capital expenditures). Post-Q1 baseline as of May 14, 2026 (5 trading days after May 7 print). Current consensus as of August 5, 2026. Q2 2026 EPS guidance range derived from Q1 2026 Earnings Call transcript (17–19% of $4.24 midpoint).
The flat FY2026 EPS revision trajectory tells a clean story: the street has accepted management’s guidance range as the anchor and is not pricing in incremental ESA upside. Any sixth ESA announcement or expansion disclosure on the Q2 call would likely trigger upward revisions to FY2026 and FY2027 estimates, as each additional GW of contracted load carries meaningful margin contribution under the LLPS tariff structure.
Key Takeaway: EVRG has outperformed XLU since the Q1 print on May 7, 2026, driven by multiple expansion on the data center growth narrative rather than estimate revisions; the stock’s relative strength vs. the sector ETF reflects the market assigning a premium for EVRG’s differentiated large-load pipeline, though the premium is not yet stretched.
Date | EVRG (Indexed) | XLU (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) | Key Event |
May 7, 2026 (Base) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | Q1 2026 Earnings (Beat + 5th ESA) |
May 15, 2026 | 97.3 | 97.2 | 101.0 | — |
May 26, 2026 | 101.7 | 100.5 | 102.6 | — |
Jun 30, 2026 | 104.5 | 100.5 | 102.1 | New $3.5B revolving credit facility; $350M mortgage bond issuance |
Jul 2, 2026 | 106.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 52-week high vicinity |
Jul 16, 2026 | 104.6 | 100.8 | 102.6 | EVRG schedules Q2 earnings call (Aug 6) |
Aug 4, 2026 | 101.3 | 97.8 | 105.4 | Peer earnings season (AEP raised guidance; DUK rate settlement) |
Aug 5, 2026 (Latest) | 100.4 | 96.8 | 105.2 | Day before Q2 earnings |
Performance Summary (May 7 → Aug 5, 2026): EVRG +0.4% | XLU −3.2% | SPY +5.2%. EVRG has outperformed XLU by ~360 bps since the Q1 print, driven by the data center growth premium. The stock pulled back from its early-July high (~$88) to ~$83 heading into the print, consistent with typical pre-earnings consolidation. Sector ETF used: XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund), appropriate for EVRG’s regulated electric utility sub-sector. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).
Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the July 1, 2026 closing of a new $3.5B revolving credit facility (replacing the prior $2.5B facility), which materially strengthens EVRG’s liquidity runway and signals balance sheet confidence ahead of an accelerating capital deployment cycle; the credit action, combined with a $350M mortgage bond issuance, de-risks the near-term financing plan and is a positive setup for the print.
Key Takeaway: Insider activity since the Q1 print is limited to one planned 10b5-1 sale by an EVP and two small discretionary sales by a director — nothing that signals concern; the absence of open-market buying is unremarkable given the stock’s run to multi-year highs, and the 10b5-1 sale is obligation-driven rather than a discretionary signal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Transaction Date | Filing Date | Note |
Charles A. Caisley | EVP & Chief Customer Officer | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | ~$900K est. (10,787 shares) | June 15, 2026 | June 16, 2026 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; obligation-driven, not discretionary. Retained 37,789 shares post-transaction. |
Sandra AJ Lawrence | Director | Open Market Sale | ~$50K est. (600 shares) | June 2, 2026 | June 4, 2026 | Discretionary sale; small size (1% of holdings). Retained 680 shares post-transaction. |
Sandra AJ Lawrence | Director | Open Market Sale | ~$63K est. (761 shares) | May 28, 2026 | June 1, 2026 | Discretionary sale; small size. Retained 1,680 shares post-transaction. |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings (Insider Transaction Data). Open-market buys and sells only (Form 4 codes P/S) plus 10b5-1 plan disclosures. No open-market purchases were filed in the period. The two director sales by Sandra AJ Lawrence are small in absolute dollar terms and represent a modest reduction in a relatively small position; they do not constitute a meaningful negative signal. The Caisley 10b5-1 sale is pre-planned and routine.
Peer | Date | Commentary (Current Quarter / Forward-Looking) | EVRG Read-Through | Signal |
XEL | Jul 30, 2026 | "We received approval for our large load tariff in Minnesota and made additional large load tariff filings in Colorado and Wisconsin." "New large load customers will pay for the generation that they need to serve them... customers will get the benefit of having more load on a fixed asset like the grid." | XEL’s Minnesota LLPS tariff approval is a direct precedent for EVRG’s own LLPS tariff in Kansas and Missouri — confirms the regulatory model is working and that existing customers benefit. Positive for EVRG’s Missouri Metro rate case narrative. | Positive |
AEP | Jul 30, 2026 | "In Indiana, we’ve been very public about the fact that we will be filing for a rate decrease [later this summer]." "We have three additional filings pending for proposed large load tariffs, and our teams are working closely with key stakeholders to advance them." | AEP filing for a rate decrease in Indiana because large-load revenues are shifting fixed costs away from residential customers — the exact affordability argument EVRG is making in Kansas and Missouri. Validates EVRG’s regulatory strategy. | Positive |
LNT | Jul 31, 2026 | "In Wisconsin, we recently received approval of our individual customer rate agreement supporting Meta’s data center development in Beaver Dam. In response to that order, we expect to file a broader, large load tariff later this quarter." "In Iowa, I don’t think there’s another state in the country that can say for the next five years, 0% rate increases." | LNT’s Wisconsin approval and Iowa rate stability demonstrate that large-load growth can deliver affordability benefits to existing customers — directly supports EVRG’s messaging that its LLPS tariff structure protects Kansas and Missouri ratepayers. | Positive |
NI | Aug 5, 2026 | "We are engaged in the affordability discussions underway while the Commission is evaluating a range of issues. We’re encouraged by the collaborative and constructive nature of the discussions scheduled to begin on August 7th." "Everyone’s aligned on the importance of economic development. That growth is the key to affordability in Indiana." | Regulators across the Midwest are engaging constructively on affordability — the same framework EVRG is using in its Missouri Metro rate case. The “growth = affordability” narrative is gaining traction with state commissions. | Positive |
AEE | Jul 31, 2026 | "We remain on track to file an update to Ameren Missouri’s Integrated Resource Plan in late September... and we plan to update our sales, capital investment forecasts, financing plans, and long-term earnings growth expectations on our third quarter earnings call." | Ameren’s Missouri IRP update in late September will be a key data point for the Missouri regulatory environment that EVRG also operates in. Watch for any signals on generation mix, cost recovery mechanisms, or data center tariff structures that could inform EVRG’s own Missouri proceedings. | Neutral |
DUK | Aug 5, 2026 | Duke Energy Progress reaches comprehensive rate settlement in North Carolina. | Constructive regulatory outcomes continue across the sector heading into EVRG’s Missouri Metro rate case settlement conferences (Sept 23–24). Positive sector backdrop for EVRG’s own regulatory proceedings. | Positive |
Peer | Date | Commentary (Current Quarter / Forward-Looking) | EVRG Read-Through | Signal |
CNP | Jul 28, 2026 | "We announced a $1.2 billion increase to our capital investment plan... We expect to deploy this incremental capital over the next five years without the need for additional equity financing." "We expect meaningfully higher cash flow from new demand charges of approximately $6 million per gigawatt per month as we energize the anticipated 14GW of new load." | CNP’s ability to raise capex by $1.2B without additional equity — funded by large-load cash flows — is the exact dynamic EVRG management has flagged as a potential moderator of its own equity needs. Validates EVRG’s “real opportunity to moderate equity needs by hundreds of millions” commentary. | Positive |
LNT | Jul 31, 2026 | "Of the approximately $2.4 billion of announced common equity needs through 2029, we have already raised approximately $1.8 billion through forward equity agreements. These actions effectively address our equity needs through 2028." | LNT’s proactive equity pre-funding (75% of 5-year need already locked in) is a positive model for EVRG, which is executing its own ATM program. Demonstrates that utilities can manage equity dilution risk through disciplined forward sales. | Positive |
AEE | Jul 31, 2026 | "So far this year, to address a portion of our prospective equity needs, we have sold forward approximately $1.2 billion of common stock under our at-the-market program." "This month [July], we filed a request for the one gigawatt West Alton Natural Gas Combined Cycle facility, which is expected to be in service in 2031." | Ameren’s $1.2B ATM execution and 1 GW gas plant filing in Missouri are directly relevant to EVRG’s own ATM program and IRP generation filings. Confirms the Missouri regulatory environment is receptive to large gas generation investments. | Positive |
XEL | Jul 30, 2026 | "We are already in front of approximately $6 billion, or 85% of our $7 billion equity need in our base five-year plan." "We expect to deliver nine-plus percent EPS growth on average through 2030." | XEL’s 85% equity pre-funding and 9%+ EPS growth target through 2030 set a high bar for the sector. EVRG’s 6–8%+ target (with >8% from 2028) is achievable but positions EVRG as a mid-tier grower vs. XEL’s more aggressive outlook — watch for any guidance raise on the Q2 call. | Neutral |
Peer | Date | Commentary (Current Quarter / Forward-Looking) | EVRG Read-Through | Signal |
NI | Aug 5, 2026 | "2026 has been an unusually active year, with a record number of tornadoes driving increased outages and system impacts." "Higher than usual storm activity and elevated expense to maintain workforce continuity during the ongoing union negotiations" offset Q2 benefits. | Record tornado activity in 2026 is a direct risk for EVRG’s Kansas/Missouri service territory, which is in Tornado Alley. Elevated storm O&M could be a headwind to Q2 results if EVRG experienced similar weather events. Watch for storm restoration cost disclosure. | Negative |
WEC | Jul 29, 2026 | "[The Illinois pipe program workforce ramp-up] is going a little bit slower than we would like in 2026 here." "Staff and intervenor testimony [on Wisconsin rate case] is due in mid-August [August 10th and 14th]." | Labor market tightness is slowing infrastructure program execution across the Midwest utility sector — a potential headwind for EVRG’s own capital deployment timeline. Rate case testimony timing (mid-August) is a near-term regulatory catalyst for WEC but not directly for EVRG. | Negative |
WEC | Jul 29, 2026 | "One of the [political] candidates has identified that they potentially would do a moratorium on data centers." | Political risk of data center moratoriums is emerging in the Midwest. While EVRG’s Kansas and Missouri territories have been supportive of data center development (LLPS tariff approved, economic development incentives in place), this is a tail risk to monitor as the 2026 election cycle progresses. | Negative |
Theme | Overall Signal | Key Implication for EVRG Q2 2026 |
Data Center Demand Acceleration | Positive | Sector-wide confirmation that hyperscaler demand is real, backed by financial commitments, and ramping ahead of schedule. Validates EVRG’s 7–8% load growth CAGR and ESA pipeline. |
Regulatory Constructiveness (Large-Load Tariffs) | Positive | LLPS tariff approvals and large-load rate structures are gaining traction across multiple states. Supports EVRG’s Missouri Metro rate case and Kansas regulatory strategy. |
Affordability Narrative (Growth = Lower Bills) | Positive | AEP filing for rate decreases in Indiana; LNT holding Iowa rates flat for 5 years. Validates EVRG’s core affordability argument to regulators and customers. |
Equity Financing / Capital Plan Execution | Positive | CNP raising capex without equity; LNT 75% pre-funded. Supports EVRG’s narrative that ESA cash flows can moderate equity needs over time. |
Storm O&M / Labor Pressures | Negative | Record tornado activity and labor tightness are sector-wide headwinds. EVRG’s Kansas/Missouri territory is directly exposed to severe weather O&M risk in Q2. |
Political Risk (Data Center Moratoriums) | Negative | Emerging political risk in the Midwest; tail risk for EVRG’s long-term pipeline if state-level moratoriums gain traction. |
Guidance Trajectory (Peers Raising / Reaffirming) | Positive | AEP raised guidance; NI, LNT, AEE, XEL all reaffirmed at or above midpoints. Sets a positive sector tone heading into EVRG’s print. |
Sources: Q2 2026 earnings call transcripts for AEP (July 30, 2026), AEE (July 31, 2026), LNT (July 31, 2026), XEL (July 30, 2026), WEC (July 29, 2026), CNP (July 28, 2026), NI (August 5, 2026). DUK 8-K (August 5, 2026). All commentary is forward-looking (Q3 2026 or post-Q2 developments) and excludes retrospective Q2 results discussion. Dominion Energy Q2 2026 earnings release (July 31, 2026) via Reuters.