{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.71 vs. cons $1.64",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.93B vs. cons $2.90B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Operating income",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$300M vs. cons ~$285M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Formal guidance (EXPD issues none; no earnings call)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide n/a ~0 vs. cons 0 explicit items (Q3'26); event is the written release only",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ocean trajectory commentary (revenue/FEU)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-5% FEU / rev-per-container down ~30-40% vs. cons flat 0% (2H'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Air + Customs/fee momentum (implied Q3'26 EPS)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "implied ~$1.72 vs. cons ~$1.70 (Q3'26) on air/customs strength",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Likely modest EPS beat (~$1.71 vs $1.64) but bar is very high after a ~46% run and premium ~27-28x multiple; ocean remains structurally weak and air per-kilo margins are volatile, so out-period estimate revisions skew down even on a beat. Fresh CHRW blow-up (~$205 to ~$147) has soured freight-cycle sentiment and raises de-rating risk. No call means limited ability to reset the narrative higher, so an initial pop tends to fade as analysts trim forward numbers.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}