| EXPD |
Report |
Q2 2026 EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.77 vs. cons $1.68 |
HIGH |
| EXPD |
Report |
Q2 2026 Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.95B vs. cons $2.90B |
MEDIUM |
| EXPD |
Report |
Ocean Freight Revenue/Margin (sequential per-container profitability) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~flat to +3% seq. margin improvement vs. cons expectation of ~flat (Hormuz rerouting benefit roughly offset by volume decline) |
LOW |
| EXPD |
Guide |
FY2026 EPS commentary/implied outlook (EXPD gives no formal guidance) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$6.75 vs. cons $6.74 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| EXPD |
Guide |
Share repurchase pace under $3B authorization |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$280-300M/quarter vs. cons-implied pace of ~$300M/quarter (FY2026, based on $3B over ~10 quarters) |
MEDIUM |
| EXPD |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| EXPD |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Even with a likely Q2 EPS/revenue beat, the stock is priced for perfection (avg PT ~$157 vs ~$171 price, mixed Hold/Sell skew) and peers CHRW/UPS were punished 7-15% despite beats this season on out-quarter concerns. The key swing factor—ocean freight/Hormuz rerouting margin gains—is widely viewed as transient (management's own 10-Q flags reversal risk if Red Sea/Suez normalizes), so any second-half commentary suggesting ocean tailwinds fade or airfreight/tech tonnage normalizes should pull Q3/Q4 estimates down even if FY26 consensus holds near-term, driving continued downward drift over the week rather than a snap-back. |
LOW |