{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.77 vs. cons $1.68",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.95B vs. cons $2.90B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ocean Freight Revenue/Margin (sequential per-container profitability)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~flat to +3% seq. margin improvement vs. cons expectation of ~flat (Hormuz rerouting benefit roughly offset by volume decline)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 EPS commentary/implied outlook (EXPD gives no formal guidance)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.75 vs. cons $6.74 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Share repurchase pace under $3B authorization",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$280-300M/quarter vs. cons-implied pace of ~$300M/quarter (FY2026, based on $3B over ~10 quarters)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Even with a likely Q2 EPS/revenue beat, the stock is priced for perfection (avg PT ~$157 vs ~$171 price, mixed Hold/Sell skew) and peers CHRW/UPS were punished 7-15% despite beats this season on out-quarter concerns. The key swing factor\u2014ocean freight/Hormuz rerouting margin gains\u2014is widely viewed as transient (management's own 10-Q flags reversal risk if Red Sea/Suez normalizes), so any second-half commentary suggesting ocean tailwinds fade or airfreight/tech tonnage normalizes should pull Q3/Q4 estimates down even if FY26 consensus holds near-term, driving continued downward drift over the week rather than a snap-back.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}