EXPD Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-04

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EXPD Report Diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.73 vs. cons $1.68 MEDIUM
EXPD Report Revenue MISS pred ~$2.86B vs. cons $2.91B MEDIUM
EXPD Report Operating income BEAT pred ~$291M vs. cons $285M MEDIUM
EXPD Guide Implied full-year EPS outlook BETTER guide ~$6.82 vs. cons $6.74 (FY2026) LOW
EXPD Guide Airfreight tonnage growth commentary LOWER guide ~4% vs. cons 5% (Q3 2026) LOW
EXPD Guide Operating efficiency commentary LOWER guide ~29.5% vs. cons 30.0% (Q3 2026) LOW
EXPD Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.8% MEDIUM
EXPD Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) A margin-led EPS beat should initially outweigh the revenue miss, but softer Q3 airfreight growth and efficiency imply that only about $0.08 of the roughly $0.11 Q2 EPS upside flows into FY2026 estimates, limiting revisions and causing part of the day-1 gain to fade. MEDIUM