EXPE Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EXPE Report Revenue BEAT pred ~$4.22B vs. cons $4.169B MEDIUM
EXPE Report Adj. EBITDA BEAT pred ~$1.06B vs. cons $1.036B MEDIUM
EXPE Report Adj. EPS BEAT pred ~$5.45 vs. cons $5.18 MEDIUM
EXPE Guide FY2026 revenue growth guide (raise) BETTER guide ~+8-9% vs. cons ~+7% (prior +6-9%, FY2026) MEDIUM
EXPE Guide FY2026 Adj. EBITDA margin expansion BETTER guide ~+125bps (high end) vs. cons ~+110bps (FY2026) MEDIUM
EXPE Guide Q2 gross bookings growth BETTER pred ~+9% (~$33.2B) vs. cons ~+8% ($33.0B) (Q2'26) MEDIUM
EXPE Guide Q3'26 revenue growth guide UNKNOWN guide ~+7-9% vs. cons ~+8% (Q3'26) LOW
EXPE Guide 2H margin cadence commentary LOWER guide moderating expansion ~+50bps vs. cons ~+80bps (2H'26, lapping cost cuts + AI costs) MEDIUM
EXPE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -4.0% MEDIUM
EXPE Return 5-day cumulative residual -6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock ran ~+20% in two weeks and ~+37% over two months into the print with consensus already at the top of the Q2 guide, so a beat + modest FY raise is largely priced — classic sell-the-news (mirrors the post-Q1 drop despite a beat). Out-period math weighs: management flagged moderating 2H margin expansion (lapping 2H'25 cost cuts, rising AI/token costs) plus B2B mix pressure and lingering Middle East/oil uncertainty, so even with a Q2 beat, forward EBITDA/margin revisions are capped, driving continued profit-taking and follow-through weakness over the week. LOW