I'll research EXPE before writing the preview. Let me start by gathering recent filings, transcripts, and news.I have the key documents. Let me read the most recent earnings call transcript and release, plus grab stock price data.I have the Q1 2026 details. Let me get stock price performance and check for any recent news/analyst context.Let me get the latest news around the report and peer read-throughs.I have strong context. Let me quickly confirm the year-ago Q2 2025 adjusted EPS for a clean YoY comparison, and check the BKNG peer read-through detail.I now have everything I need. Here's the earnings preview.
Expedia heads into this print hot — the stock closed at $312.10 on Aug 4, up ~20% in just two weeks (from ~$261 on July 22) on the back of strong Big-Tech/travel earnings and improving sentiment. That means a solid quarter is partly priced in; the debate is less "will they beat Q2?" and more "will the new CFO raise the full-year guide, and how much did the Middle East/oil shock bleak into results?"
| Metric | Consensus (Q2'26) | EXPE Guidance (Q2'26) | Q2'25 Actual | Implied Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross bookings | ~$33B | $32.5–33.1B (+7–9%) | $30,409M | +7–9% |
| Revenue | $4.169B | $4.11–4.19B (+9–11%) | $3,786M | +10.1% |
| Adj. EBITDA | ~$1.036B | margin +0.5–1.0 pt | $908M (24.0%) | +14% / ~+85bps margin |
| Adj. EPS | ~$5.18 | — | $4.24 | ~+22% |
Note: consensus revenue sits at the very top of management's guide, and the implied EBITDA margin (~24.9%) is at the high end of the +0.5–1.0pt expansion range. The setup demands an at-or-above-guide print, not just an in-line one.
Q1 2026 (reported May 7) was a clear beat that set an optimistic tone but flagged real macro noise: - Gross bookings +13%, revenue +15%, Adj. EBITDA +83% to $542M with ~591bps of margin expansion — the highest Q1 profitability in company history. - B2B +22% gross bookings (the standout, now with new Uber and Bank of Montreal AIR MILES partnerships); B2C +10%, the fastest consumer growth in ~8 years (last seen 2018). - The wrinkle: momentum was strong in Jan/Feb, then March hit turbulence — travel advisories in Mexico (hurting consumer/outbound U.S.) and the Middle East conflict (driving elevated cancellations across Europe and Asia, hitting B2B). Management said these two events cost ~2 points of bookings/room-night growth for the quarter. April rebounded but not fully. - Critically, despite the Q1 beat, management held the full-year guide unchanged (GB +6–8%, revenue +6–9%, EBITDA margin +100–125bps), calling out geopolitical/macro uncertainty and promising a fuller FY update on this Q2 call.
So the single biggest catalyst tomorrow is the full-year guidance revision — management already hinted they'd land at the high end of the +100–125bps margin range and acknowledged "potential upside." A guidance raise vs. a reiteration will likely drive the stock reaction more than the Q2 print itself.
1. Macro / Middle East / oil — how much bled into Q2? This is the swing factor. The Q1 disruptions (Mexico advisories + Middle East cancellations) straddled the Q1/Q2 boundary. Since then, the war in Iran has kept oil elevated and U.S. gas prices above $4 — a classic mixed signal for travel (higher airfares can dent demand but Expedia's bundling/hotel value prop can benefit). Peer read-throughs are cautionary: IAG flattened its capacity outlook on Middle East weakness (though British Airways gained from corporate rerouting), and Lufthansa cut 2026 guidance citing volatile kerosene prices. Watch management's characterization of May–July trends and whether cancellations fully normalized.
2. Will the U.S. consumer / B2C reaccelerate? Q1 B2C bookings +10% was a post-COVID best, but U.S. room-night growth was only "stable" and EXPE conceded it grew slower than some peers in the U.S. (offset by Mexico outbound pressure). With Vrbo momentum (now >$1B annualized run-rate on Expedia, supplier-funded promos = 1/3 of Vrbo bookings) and Brand Expedia strength, investors want confirmation the consumer recovery is durable, not a one-quarter pop.
3. B2B — can 20%+ growth hold, and what's Uber worth? B2B is the growth engine (+22% in Q1). But growth is decelerating off tough comps and moderating partner promotional intensity. The exclusive Uber hotel partnership (U.S. first, then international) and BMO AIR MILES are the new legs — expect updates on ramp and incrementality. B2B also carries lower/near-flat margins by design (partner commissions), so faster B2B mix can weigh on blended margins.
4. Margin expansion — the 2H lapping problem. The huge YoY margin gains have been driven by marketing discipline and cost cuts made in 2H 2025. Management explicitly warned that margin expansion will moderate in 2H 2026 as they lap those actions, plus rising AI/token costs and "add-back" hiring. Q2 should still show expansion; the forward commentary on 2H cadence matters.
5. AI — threat and opportunity. A recurring bear worry is AI-agent disintermediation. Management's framing: AI reinforces their moat (supply scale of ~3.7M properties, 800K exclusive; trust; servicing). Notably, they pointed to OpenAI scaling back its checkout ambitions as evidence that booking/servicing stays with trusted, scaled providers, while AI becomes a discovery/advertising layer they know well. "Answer Engine Optimization" is their fastest-growing channel; ChatGPT ads and Claude integrations are live but small. Expect more on AI-driven traffic monetization.
6. New CFO's first guide. Derek Andersen replaces Scott Schenkel and delivers his first full-year outlook on this call — an added variable for how conservative/aggressive the reset lands.
At ~$312 and ~120M shares, EXPE is ~$37–38B market cap against ~$3.7B TTM Adj. EBITDA and ~$4B FCF — roughly 10x EV/EBITDA, a persistent discount to Booking. The bull case is "cheap compounder with buyback + accelerating consumer + B2B optionality"; the risk is that after a 20% two-week run into the print, expectations have caught up and anything short of a confident FY raise could trigger profit-taking. Recall the stock is volatile around earnings (shares fell sharply the day after the Q1 beat despite strong numbers).
Given the strong run into the print and consensus already at the top of the Q2 guide, the risk/reward now hinges on the forward story — the full-year raise and reassurance on macro — more than the backward-looking Q2 beat, which appears largely expected.
Note: All figures above are drawn from EXPE's own Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 filings/transcripts and pre-earnings news; consensus figures (~$4.169B revenue, ~$1.036B EBITDA, ~$5.18 EPS) reflect Street estimates as reported in late-July coverage and could differ modestly from the final consensus at print.