{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Gross Bookings (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$33.4B vs. cons $33.0B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.23B vs. cons $4.18B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.07B vs. cons $1.04B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Revenue guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$15.85-15.95B vs. cons ~$15.87B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~100-110bps vs. cons ~115bps (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 Gross Bookings growth (implied guide/commentary)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~5-7% growth vs. cons ~8% growth (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -6.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -8.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran up ~20% into the print and trades above avg Street target, so a Q2 beat consistent with the top of guidance is largely priced in. Reiterating (not raising) FY26 bookings/revenue and margin-expansion guidance amid an escalated Iran-war/oil-shock backdrop (doubled jet fuel, Gulf airspace closures, Lufthansa/IAG guide cuts) and Booking Holdings' own Q3 deceleration signal implies an implicit trim to H2 estimates. Sell-side will likely walk down H2/FY26 bookings, revenue and margin numbers over the following days as they reconcile the reiterated range against Q2's beat-the-run-rate, producing continued downward drift beyond the initial print reaction rather than a snap-back, though the $5B buyback authorization provides a partial floor limiting further downside.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}