Timing clarification: Expedia is scheduled to report today, Wednesday, August 5, 2026, after the U.S. market close, followed by its webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. The August 5 date is not tomorrow.
Expedia enters the report with strong operating momentum but a considerably higher expectations bar. First-quarter results exceeded guidance, consumer bookings accelerated to their fastest pace in years, B2B remained above 20% growth, and aggressive marketing discipline produced substantial margin expansion.
The stock has responded: EXPE closed at $312.10 on August 4, up approximately 17% over the past month and 23% since the May 7 earnings report. Consequently, an in-line quarter paired with unchanged guidance may not be enough. Investors will likely want:
| Metric | 2Q26 company outlook / Street view | 2Q25 result | Key implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross bookings | $32.5B–$33.1B, up 7%–9% | $30.4B | Company assumed roughly 0.5 point of FX benefit |
| Revenue | $4.11B–$4.19B, up 9%–11% | $3.79B | Street is near $4.17B, toward the top of guidance |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Street approximately $1.04B | $908M | Implies roughly 14% growth |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Street approximately 24.9% | 24.0% | About 90 bps of expansion, near the upper end of guidance |
| Adjusted EPS | Street approximately $5.18 | — | Buybacks should remain an important tailwind |
The reported revenue comparison will look stronger than the underlying business because Expedia expected approximately four percentage points of FX benefit to revenue growth. Thus, Street revenue growth of roughly 10% translates to only about 6% on an FX-neutral basis.
That makes bookings, room nights and margin quality more informative than reported revenue alone.
Expedia grew first-quarter room nights 6%, compared with gross bookings growth of 13%. The difference reflected higher ADRs, foreign exchange and product mix.
For the second quarter, investors should distinguish between:
Booking Holdings' August 4 report offers a useful industry read-through. It produced 5% room-night growth, with high-single-digit domestic growth but only slight international growth. It said Middle East disruption remained a larger headwind in April and May before conditions improved in June and July. Long-haul travel continued to face higher airfares and reduced capacity.
That backdrop is mixed for Expedia:
Investor benchmark: room-night growth around the mid-single digits would be respectable. A materially weaker result would make a bookings beat less compelling, particularly if driven by ADR, air pricing or FX.
B2B remains Expedia's most differentiated asset and arguably the most important part of the long-term investment case.
In 1Q26:
There are two reasons to expect some deceleration:
A slowdown into the high teens would still support the structural growth narrative. A drop toward low-double-digit growth, particularly without a clear macro explanation, would raise questions about comparisons, partner concentration and competitive pressure.
Investors should also listen for updates on:
The Uber relationship is strategically validating, but investors should not expect it to be a major second-quarter financial contributor this early in the rollout.
Expedia's consumer segment had an unusually strong first quarter:
The critical question is whether this represents a durable product and brand improvement or primarily a period of aggressive marketing optimization.
Watch for continued strength in:
Air is strategically useful because it begins the trip-planning relationship, but it is a low-revenue product by itself. Strong air growth is most valuable when Expedia converts those customers into lodging, insurance and package bookings.
Vrbo has moved from turnaround story to potential growth driver. Management cited improved traffic, conversion, product quality and supplier-funded promotions, with more than one-third of Vrbo bookings using such promotions in the first quarter.
Key indicators include:
Booking.com reported only 4% alternative-accommodation room-night growth in its second quarter, modestly below its total growth. That may create an opportunity for Vrbo to demonstrate relative improvement, although the companies have different geographic and property mixes.
The first quarter's nearly six percentage points of EBITDA-margin expansion was exceptional, driven by:
The second-quarter guide calls for a much more normalized 50–100 basis points of margin expansion. Street EBITDA of about $1.04 billion implies a margin near 24.9%, or roughly 90 basis points of expansion—already near the top of that range.
A high-quality beat would combine:
A lower-quality beat would rely on favorable FX, unusually strong ADRs or cost cuts accompanied by weak room-night growth.
Management has warned that margin expansion should moderate in the second half as Expedia laps the large marketing reductions and restructuring actions taken in 2025. AI token costs, technical talent and product investment will also create some expense pressure. Investors will therefore focus on whether the company can still expand margins once the easiest comparisons disappear.
Expedia's existing 2026 outlook is:
| Metric | Current FY26 outlook |
|---|---|
| Gross bookings | $127B–$129B, up 6%–8% |
| Revenue | $15.6B–$16.0B, up 6%–9% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion | 100–125 bps |
After 1Q, management said it expected to finish at the high end of the margin range and acknowledged potential upside, but delayed an update because of geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
The stock's recent appreciation suggests investors now expect that upside to be formalized.
Expedia repurchased $700 million of stock in 1Q at an average price of approximately $212 per share, and subsequently authorized another $5 billion repurchase program. The share price is now materially higher, making the pace and discipline of repurchases more relevant.
Investors should watch:
Buybacks should continue to support EPS growth, but at the current price the incremental accretion is less powerful than it was earlier in the year.
Expedia's AI strategy has three components:
Management said in June that AI-related traffic was still less than approximately 1.5% of total traffic. Investors should therefore resist interpreting near-term results primarily through an AI-disintermediation lens.
The more useful questions are:
Booking Holdings similarly reported that traffic from large-language-model platforms remains well below 1% of room nights. That supports Expedia's argument that AI is currently more of a discovery and advertising channel than an immediate booking-platform replacement.
This would reinforce the thesis that Expedia is producing both renewed growth and structural margin expansion.
This is fundamentally solid, but the stock reaction may be muted given the recent rally.
With the stock at a recent high, this combination could produce a significant negative reaction.
Expedia should deliver a healthy second quarter, supported by resilient U.S. domestic travel, favorable FX, continued B2B expansion and strong cost discipline. The main risks are international and long-haul softness, elevated airfares, moderating B2B partner promotions and a difficult expectations setup following the stock's rally.
The most important issue is not whether Expedia clears the published second-quarter guidance—it is whether the results and updated outlook demonstrate that mid-single-digit room-night growth, high-teens-plus B2B growth and continued margin expansion can persist into the second half.
A clean beat accompanied by a substantive full-year raise would support the improving execution story. An in-line print with unchanged guidance may be viewed as insufficient.