Expedia Group (EXPE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus sits at the low end of guidance, estimates have barely moved since the Q1 print, and Booking Holdings' Q2 results (reported August 4) confirm resilient domestic demand and normalizing cancellations, the two biggest swing factors for EXPE. The wildcard is whether management finally raises full-year guidance, which it deferred at Q1 despite a record margin beat.

Bar: Consensus gross bookings of ~$32.97B sits at the midpoint of the $32.5–$33.1B guidance range, and revenue consensus of ~$4.17B is just above the midpoint of the $4.11–$4.19B guide — a low bar relative to EXPE's recent track record of beating the high end of its own guidance. Adjusted EPS consensus of ~$5.09 is well below the implied run-rate from Q1's ~$1.96 print (which itself was ~40% above the Street), suggesting the Street has not fully reset expectations upward.

Guidance/Tone: Management maintained full-year guidance at Q1 despite a record Q1 EBITDA margin (15.8%, highest Q1 in 15 years) and signaled it would update at Q2 earnings. The company guided Q2 EBITDA margin expansion of 50–100 bps and flagged that marketing efficiency gains would moderate in H2 as the company laps elevated leverage from H2 2025. The CFO transition (Scott Schenkel out, Derek Anderson in from Snap) adds a modest uncertainty layer but is unlikely to change the financial narrative.

Estimate Trajectory: Revenue and EPS estimates for Q2 2026 have been remarkably stable since the May 7 print — revenue consensus moved from ~$4.166B to ~$4.171B (+0.1%) and EPS from ~$5.06 to ~$5.09 (+0.6%) over the 12 weeks since last earnings. This flat revision trajectory suggests the Street is anchored to guidance midpoints rather than pricing in upside, creating a low bar.

Stock Setup: EXPE has rallied ~23% since the May 7 earnings date (from $252.79 to ~$312 as of August 5), outperforming the S&P 500 (+5.4%) and XLY (+1.2%) over the same period. The stock trades at 8.43x NTM EV/EBITDA, up from ~7.65x one month ago — multiple expansion has driven roughly 60% of the 1-month gain. At current levels, the stock is pricing in continued execution but not a material guidance raise, leaving room for upside if management updates the full-year outlook.

Wildcard: The single biggest swing factor is whether management raises full-year 2026 guidance. At Q1, management explicitly deferred the update to Q2 earnings. Given Q1 outperformance, Booking Holdings' Q2 beat (gross bookings +9% YoY, exceeding guidance by ~3 pts), and Marriott's U.S. RevPAR +5% in Q2, the demand backdrop supports a raise. A guidance raise — particularly on EBITDA margin — could re-rate the stock meaningfully given the current discount to historical multiples.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sits at or below guidance midpoints across all key metrics, making this a low bar heading into the print. Booked room nights and gross bookings are the bigger swing factors — both are volume metrics that drive revenue and EBITDA leverage, and Booking Holdings' Q2 room night growth of +5% (above guidance) is a constructive read-through.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Pattern: EXPE has beaten revenue consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters and beaten EPS consensus in 7 of 8, with the EPS beats often large (40%+ in Q1 2026 and Q1 2025). The two revenue misses (Q3 2024, Q1 2025) were modest and coincided with macro/geopolitical disruptions. The consistent beat pattern, combined with a flat estimate trajectory since Q1, reinforces the low-bar setup.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: No formal guidance changes have been made since the May 7 Q1 earnings call — all metrics remain at initial guidance levels. The critical update is expected at this Q2 print, where management explicitly committed to providing a full-year guidance update. Given Q1 outperformance and the high end of the EBITDA margin range already signaled, a raise is the base case.

Source: Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Transcript (May 7, 2026); Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print — revenue and EPS for Q2 moved less than 1% over 12 weeks, and full-year estimates are similarly anchored. This flat trajectory reflects the Street waiting for the formal full-year guidance update at Q2 earnings rather than proactively revising, creating a setup where any guidance raise could drive meaningful estimate revisions.

The flat revision trajectory since May 14 is notable: revenue estimates for Q2 moved only +$5M (+0.1%) and FY estimates moved +$4M (+0.0%) over 12 weeks. This anchoring to guidance midpoints — rather than proactive upward revision — suggests the Street is waiting for the formal full-year update at Q2 earnings. If management raises the FY revenue range above $16.0B or expands the EBITDA margin guide above 125 bps, consensus revisions could be meaningful.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (revision history, weekly frequency, May 15 – August 4, 2026); Q1 2026 Earnings Release (May 7, 2026) for guidance ranges.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: EXPE has rallied ~23% since the May 7 earnings date, dramatically outperforming both the S&P 500 (+5.4%) and XLY (+1.2%) over the same period. The move has been driven by a combination of multiple expansion (NTM EV/EBITDA expanded from ~7.65x to 8.43x over the past month) and improving earnings estimates, with the stock re-rating as the operational turnaround story gains credibility. The sharp rally in late July (EXPE +14% in the week of July 27–31) coincided with Booking Holdings' strong Q2 results and broader travel sector strength.

Key Events Since May 7 Earnings:

• May 7 (Earnings Day): EXPE opened at $252.79, fell sharply to ~$230 the next day (−10%) as the stock sold off in after-hours despite the Q1 beat, driven by maintained (not raised) full-year guidance and CFO departure announcement.
• May 19–20 (Explore 2026 Conference): Expedia's annual partner conference in Las Vegas; new partnerships announced (CLEAR, IWG/Hotels.com, Uber deepening, Meta AI ads). Stock stabilized in the $215–$225 range.
• June 2 (Evercore TMT Conference): CEO Ariane Gorin fireside chat; no material guidance update disclosed.
• June 22 (Annual Meeting): Shareholders elected directors, approved executive pay, ratified auditors — routine.
• Late June (Stock Re-rating): EXPE rallied from ~$225 to ~$265 between June 15–26, coinciding with broader travel sector strength and TCOM Q1 results (June 24).
• July 27–31 (Travel Sector Surge): EXPE surged from ~$258 to ~$295 (+14%) as Booking Holdings pre-announced strong Q2 trends and Marriott reported Q2 RevPAR +3.4% globally, +5% in U.S. and Canada.
• August 4 (BKNG Q2 Earnings): Booking Holdings reported Q2 gross bookings +9% YoY (above guidance by ~3 pts), confirming resilient travel demand. EXPE rose to ~$312 on August 5.

Valuation Context: At $312, EXPE trades at 8.43x NTM EV/EBITDA vs. a 12-month low of ~7.37x. The 12-month return of +75% has been driven by both multiple expansion (+14.4% on EV/EBITDA) and earnings growth. The stock remains at a meaningful discount to historical averages despite the operational turnaround, suggesting further re-rating potential if management raises guidance.

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Stock Performance Decomposition (NTM multiples as of August 4, 2026).

6. Material News & Developments (Since May 7, 2026)

Key Takeaway: The most important development is Booking Holdings' Q2 2026 beat (reported August 4), which directly validates the demand environment heading into EXPE's print. Separately, the CarTrawler acquisition and Explore 2026 partner conference announcements reinforce the B2B expansion thesis that is central to EXPE's growth story.

• August 4, 2026 — Booking Holdings (BKNG) Q2 2026 Beat: BKNG reported Q2 gross bookings +9% YoY, exceeding guidance by ~3 percentage points, with room nights +5% and revenue +8%. Management confirmed demand remains resilient in Q3 so far, with domestic travel healthy and cancellations normalizing from March/April elevated levels. Direct positive read-through for EXPE's Q2 gross bookings and room night growth.
• August 3, 2026 — Marriott (MAR) Q2 2026 Results: MAR reported global RevPAR +3.4%, U.S. and Canada RevPAR +5% (highest quarterly increase in 13 quarters), and raised full-year RevPAR guidance to +3.0–3.5% from +2.0–3.0%. Leisure revenues rose 5% globally and 7% in the U.S. and Canada. Confirms strong underlying lodging demand that benefits OTA booking volumes.
• August 3, 2026 — TripAdvisor Finalizes $700M Sale of TheFork to American Express: TRIP completed the divestiture of its restaurant booking platform TheFork to American Express for $700M. Reduces TRIP's competitive overlap with EXPE in experiences/dining; American Express's ownership could create new distribution dynamics.
• July 27, 2026 — Trip.com (TCOM) Hit With $781M China Antitrust Penalty: Chinese regulators fined TCOM 5.18 billion yuan (~$765M) for abusing market dominance, including restricting hotel operators' cross-platform pricing. TCOM accepted the penalty. Modest positive for EXPE's international B2B business as TCOM faces compliance-driven operational adjustments.
• May 20, 2026 — CarTrawler Acquisition Announced: Expedia announced the acquisition of CarTrawler, an Ireland-based B2B platform for car rental, ground transport, and insurtech solutions, expected to close in H2 2026. Advances the strategy to expand the Rapid API beyond lodging into car and trip protection. Implication: Adds a new revenue stream to B2B and broadens the platform, though near-term integration costs may weigh on margins.
• May 19–20, 2026 — Explore 2026 Partner Conference (Las Vegas): Expedia announced: (1) CLEAR partnership integrating CLEAR+ into the Expedia app; (2) Hotels.com/IWG partnership offering Gold loyalty status to IWG members; (3) Deepened Uber partnership covering hotel supply across a large number of destinations worldwide; (4) Meta AI in-feed trip planning collaboration; (5) New AI product features including natural language search on Vrbo (handling ~50% of homepage traffic), AI Activity Planner, AI Property Compare, and three new partner-facing AI agents. Implication: Reinforces B2B growth pipeline and AI product differentiation ahead of the print.
• May 11, 2026 — Derek Anderson Joins as CFO: Former Snap CFO Derek Anderson officially joined Expedia as CFO, succeeding Scott Schenkel. The transition was announced on the Q1 earnings call (May 7). Implication: New CFO's first earnings call; tone and capital allocation commentary will be closely watched.
• May 7, 2026 — $5B Share Repurchase Authorization: Board approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization. Company repurchased ~$700M in Q1 2026 and intends to continue at a similar pace in 2026. Since 2022, share count has been reduced by ~25% net of dilution. Implication: Ongoing buyback cadence is a meaningful EPS tailwind and signals management confidence in free cash flow generation.
• May 7, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat: EXPE reported Q1 revenue of $3.43B (+15% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $542M (margin 15.8%, highest Q1 in 15 years, +591 bps YoY), and adjusted EPS of $1.96 (~40% above consensus). Consumer bookings grew 10% (fastest in nearly 8 years ex-COVID); B2B bookings grew 22%. Full-year guidance maintained (not raised) due to macro uncertainty; formal update deferred to Q2 call.

7. Peer Commentary Read-Throughs (Q2 2026 — Current Reporting Quarter Only)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 reporting peers is uniformly constructive for EXPE — Booking Holdings beat on all key metrics and confirmed resilient demand into Q3, Marriott reported the strongest U.S. RevPAR quarter in over three years, and Hilton highlighted a broadening demand recovery across all consumer segments. The common thread is that domestic travel remained robust while geopolitical headwinds (Middle East conflict) weighed on international/long-haul, consistent with EXPE's own Q1 commentary.

Scope Note: This section includes only commentary from peers reporting on or discussing calendar Q2 2026 (April–June 2026) performance or providing Q2 2026 forward guidance. Q1 2025 or prior-period results from peers are excluded. TCOM's Q1 2026 earnings call (June 24, 2026) is included because it provided explicit Q2 2026 guidance and current-quarter demand commentary.

Booking Holdings (BKNG) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported August 4, 2026)

Relevance: Highest-relevance peer. BKNG is the world's largest OTA and a direct competitor to EXPE across lodging, flights, and vacation rentals. BKNG's Q2 results are the single most important read-through for EXPE's Q2 print.

• Demand resilience confirmed: "The underlying desire to explore, connect, and experience the world is remarkably resilient, and travel demand recovers once the underlying disruption subsides. This resiliency was clearly evident during the second quarter." Total gross bookings grew 9% YoY, exceeding the high end of guidance by ~3 percentage points.
• Room nights +5%, ADR +2%: Room nights grew 5% globally (above guidance high end by ~1 pt), with constant currency ADR up ~2%, "demonstrating continued pricing strength, primarily driven by Europe and the US." This is a direct positive signal for EXPE's booked room nights and ADR metrics.
• U.S. demand strong: "The US grew high single digits, driven by domestic demand," with continued growth in the direct channel and increasing engagement across multiple travel verticals. Directly supports EXPE's U.S. consumer business, which grew mid-teens in domestic bookings in Q1.
• Cancellations normalized: "Elevated cancellations in March affected second quarter revenue." However, "in June, actually the situation started to normalize more, and that continued in the month of July." This mirrors EXPE's Q1 commentary that cancellations stabilized in early April and bookings reaccelerated.
• Middle East headwind quantified: "The impact was actually a bit higher than in the first quarter because we saw the impact continuing in April and in May." Revenue growth (8%) lagged gross bookings growth (9%) primarily due to elevated March cancellations. EXPE faces the same dynamic.
• Q3 2026 guidance: BKNG expects Q3 room nights +3–5% and gross bookings/revenue/EBITDA each +4–6%, assuming Middle East indirect impacts (elevated airfares, reduced capacity, softer long-haul) persist through Q3. This sets a reasonable baseline for EXPE's Q3 outlook.
• Booking window and length of stay: "Globally, we saw a modest contraction in booking window and length of stay during the quarter, although both began to normalize in June." In Europe (BKNG's largest region), both metrics were "approximately flat for the quarter" — a more benign read than feared.

Limitations: BKNG is more Europe-centric than EXPE (which is more U.S.-centric) and has a higher mix of alternative accommodations (~37% of room nights). BKNG's direct channel mix (~mid-60%) is higher than EXPE's, meaning BKNG may be less exposed to SEO/AI traffic disruption. BKNG does not have a meaningful B2B segment comparable to EXPE's Rapid API business.

Marriott International (MAR) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported August 3, 2026)

Relevance: High relevance. Marriott is the world's largest hotel chain and a key supply partner for EXPE. Strong RevPAR growth signals healthy underlying lodging demand that flows through to OTA booking volumes and ADR.

• U.S. RevPAR +5%, strongest in 13 quarters: "Rev par in the U.S. and Canada region rose 5%, the highest quarterly increase in 13 quarters, with strength in World Cup and Non-World Cup markets." Excluding the World Cup, Q2 revenue rose 4%. This broad-based strength is a strong positive for EXPE's U.S. lodging bookings.
• Luxury RevPAR +9%+ in U.S.: "Luxury and resort hotels continued to lead in the region in the quarter, with luxury rev par up over 9%." CEO Capuano noted continued momentum despite "rumors that eventually we're going to run out of steam in terms of luxury demand." Supports EXPE's premium lodging mix.
• Leisure revenues +5% globally, +7% in U.S.: Leisure demand remained the primary driver, with particular strength in Mediterranean destinations (Italy, Spain, Greece) and the Caribbean. Directly relevant to EXPE's vacation rental and leisure booking mix.
• Middle East RevPAR -43%, but better than expected: "Middle East Rev par declined 43% in the quarter, a bit better than prior expectations on better than expected domestic leisure demand." EMEA RevPAR declined just over 5% overall. Consistent with EXPE's Q1 commentary on Middle East headwinds.
• Full-year guidance raised: MAR raised full-year RevPAR guidance to +3.0–3.5% from +2.0–3.0%, citing stronger-than-expected Q2 results and improved outlook. A hotel chain raising guidance is a positive leading indicator for OTA booking volumes.
• World Cup tailwind: The World Cup provided a "slightly larger boost to full year global revenue than expected, at closer to 45 basis points globally, above our prior expectation of 30 to 35 basis points." This event-driven demand would have benefited EXPE's bookings in World Cup host cities.

Limitations: Marriott's revenue model is fee-based (franchise/management fees) vs. EXPE's commission-based model, so RevPAR growth does not translate directly to EXPE revenue. Marriott's direct booking push ("Ask Bonvoy" AI search, direct API connections with travel management companies) represents a long-term competitive pressure on OTA market share. Marriott's net unit growth guidance was revised to the lower end of 4.5–5.0% due to Middle East construction delays, which is a minor negative for supply growth.

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 28, 2026)

Relevance: High relevance. Hilton is the second-largest global hotel chain and a key supply partner for EXPE. Hilton's segment-level commentary (business transient, leisure, group) provides granular demand color.

• System-wide RevPAR +3.9%, U.S. RevPAR +5.4%: "System wide Repar increased 3.9% year over year, driven by underlying demand recovery in the US, where business, transient and group both exceeded expectations and a strong World Cup business transient." CEO Nassetta noted that ~2.7% of the 5.4% U.S. gain was "real run rate growth" with the remainder from easier comps and the World Cup.
• Business transient recovery broadening: Business transient RevPAR rose 5.7% globally, "a three point step up globally and a four point step up in the US versus the first quarter, driven by midweek demand from small to medium sized businesses." SMB growth was ~7%+ vs. large corporate ~5%. This broadening of business travel demand is a positive for EXPE's Hotels.com business travel segment.
• "C-shape Economy" — mid-market recovery: Nassetta described a "C shape Economy" where "the bottom and the mid, the middle class is getting back in the game and all these mid scale, upper mid scale... that has been fairly weak over the last couple of years is really strengthening." This is directly relevant to EXPE's K-shaped consumer commentary from Q1 (CEO Gorin noted strength at the high end and resilience from price-sensitive travelers).
• Middle East drag: -30% RevPAR, -1 pt on total: "In the Middle East and Africa region, rev par decreased approximately 30% year over year, which was better than prior expectations." The conflict was "a full percentage point" drag on Hilton's overall Q2 RevPAR. Consistent with EXPE's Q1 commentary.
• U.S. macro tailwinds cited for H2: Hilton expects U.S. RevPAR to continue benefiting from "supportive tax and regulatory policy, increased private sector investment in the AI complex, and ongoing public infrastructure spending, which should benefit the middle and lower income consumer and drive broader demand growth." Positive for EXPE's H2 outlook.

Limitations: Hilton's direct booking initiatives (industry-first direct API connection with Navan travel management company, bypassing OTA intermediaries) represent a structural competitive pressure on EXPE's commission revenue from managed travel. China RevPAR declined 2.2% due to government restrictions on group travel — a modest negative for EXPE's APAC exposure.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call (June 24, 2026) — Q2 2026 Guidance & Current-Quarter Commentary

Relevance: Moderate relevance. TCOM is primarily an Asia-Pacific OTA with limited direct overlap with EXPE's core U.S./Europe markets. However, TCOM's Q2 2026 guidance and current-quarter demand commentary (provided June 24) offers a useful read on global travel macro conditions, particularly airfare dynamics and geopolitical impacts on long-haul travel.

• Q2 2026 guidance: net revenue growth of +3–8% YoY: TCOM guided Q2 net revenue growth of approximately 3–8% YoY, a moderation from Q1's "exceptionally strong growth environment." Two drivers: (1) "rising energy prices and recent geopolitical tensions have led to higher airfares, tighter airline capacity, and disruptions on certain international routes, particularly long haul travel"; (2) compliance-related operational adjustments.
• Higher airfares softening long-haul demand: "Air travel demand has softened versus Q1 as higher airfares are influencing travel behaviours. Consumers are increasingly optimising destinations, trip plans and transportation choices." For international business, "higher airfare has reduced the demand for certain long haul routes." This is consistent with EXPE's Q1 commentary on rising airfares and the Middle East conflict's impact on capacity.
• Domestic hotel ADR turned positive: "Domestic hotel ADR has also turned modestly positive year over year, reflecting resilient strong demand and a more balanced supply demand environment." Positive for lodging pricing trends globally.
• Short booking window limits H2 visibility: "Looking forward for the second half of this year, visibility remain very limited given the short booking window." TCOM maintains a "prudent outlook, expecting many current dynamics to persist with periodic fluctuations." Consistent with EXPE's cautious H2 tone at Q1.
• Entertainment-driven travel surging: TCOM reported Q1 2026 entertainment-driven travel gross bookings +74% YoY, driven by global events (sports, concerts, cultural festivals). The World Cup and U.S. 250 celebrations cited by EXPE CEO Gorin as potential Q2/Q3 tailwinds are consistent with this trend.

Limitations: TCOM's primary market is China and APAC, with limited direct overlap with EXPE's U.S./Europe core. TCOM's Q2 guidance moderation is partly driven by China-specific regulatory compliance adjustments (train ticketing practices) that are not relevant to EXPE. TCOM's antitrust penalty ($781M, July 27) creates company-specific headwinds unrelated to EXPE.

Royal Caribbean (RCL) — Q2 2026 Earnings (Reported July 28, 2026)

Relevance: Low-to-moderate relevance. RCL is a cruise operator, not a direct OTA competitor, but its commentary on consumer travel demand and geopolitical impacts provides useful macro color.

• Q2 EPS beat, full-year guidance raised: RCL reported Q2 EPS of $4.21 vs. Street estimate of $3.98, driven by strong close-in demand, lower costs, and favorable joint venture performance. Full-year EPS guidance raised to $17.73–$17.87 from $17.10–$17.50.
• Geopolitical booking impact acknowledged: RCL noted a "modest booking impact for select itineraries primarily due to prolonged geopolitical activity" and trimmed full-year revenue growth guidance to ~9% from ~10%. However, overall demand for cruises remained resilient. Consistent with EXPE's Middle East headwind narrative.
• Consumer demand resilient: Strong close-in demand and the ability to raise full-year EPS guidance despite a revenue trim signals that consumers are still spending on travel, with pricing power intact.

Limitations: Cruise demand dynamics (all-inclusive, longer booking windows, different consumer demographics) are not directly comparable to OTA lodging/flight bookings. RCL's revenue trim on geopolitical grounds is a mild negative signal for international travel volumes.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since the May 7 earnings date is minimal — only one open-market sale was identified (SVP & Chief Accounting Officer, 940 shares, May 26), which is immaterial in size and appears discretionary. No open-market buys were filed. The absence of clustered selling or large discretionary sales is a neutral-to-slightly-positive signal.

No Form 4 open-market purchases were filed by EXPE insiders in the May 7 – August 4, 2026 window. The single sale by the Chief Accounting Officer (940 shares) is immaterial relative to his remaining holdings (14,083 shares post-sale) and is consistent with routine portfolio management. No 10b5-1 plan initiations or large discretionary sales were identified. The new CFO Derek Anderson (joined May 11) has not yet filed any Form 4 transactions, which is expected given his recent start date.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data); Form 4 filing for Lance A. Soliday (EXPE), filed May 28, 2026.

9. Key Risks & Questions for the Call

Key Takeaway: The primary risk is that management again defers a full-year guidance raise despite the strong demand backdrop, which could disappoint a market that has priced in an update. Secondary risks include AI cost escalation in H2 and the pace of marketing efficiency moderation.

Key Risks

• Guidance raise risk (downside): Management explicitly committed to updating full-year guidance at Q2 earnings. If the raise is smaller than expected (e.g., only raising the low end of the range rather than the midpoint) or if management again cites macro uncertainty to defer, the stock could sell off despite a Q2 beat — similar to the May 7 reaction.
• Marketing efficiency moderation in H2: Management flagged at Q1 that marketing efficiency gains will moderate in H2 as the company laps the elevated leverage from H2 2025. The distinction between durable efficiency improvements and one-time step-function gains is critical — if H2 margin guidance implies a meaningful step-down, it could weigh on the full-year EBITDA outlook.
• AI token cost escalation: Management flagged at Q1 that AI token costs are expected to increase in H2 as usage scales. While framed as manageable, any quantification of the H2 AI cost headwind will be closely watched, particularly given the company's aspiration to reach peer-level margins.
• Middle East/geopolitical persistence: Both BKNG and HLT noted that Middle East indirect impacts (elevated airfares, reduced capacity, softer long-haul) are expected to persist through Q3. If the conflict escalates or spreads, EXPE's international B2B business (which is ~2/3 outside the U.S.) could face renewed headwinds.
• Vrbo recovery pace: Vrbo had a "great quarter" in Q1 with strong promotion-driven bookings (>30% of bookings on supplier-funded promotions), but the underlying trust and conversion recovery is still in progress. If Vrbo's growth decelerates or promotion dependency increases, it could signal a less durable recovery.
• New CFO's first call: Derek Anderson's first earnings call as CFO introduces a modest uncertainty around tone, capital allocation priorities, and financial communication style. Any deviation from Schenkel's established messaging framework could create noise.

Key Questions for Management

1. Full-year guidance update: You committed to updating full-year guidance at Q2 earnings. What are the new gross bookings, revenue, and EBITDA margin expansion ranges? Has the macro environment improved enough to raise the midpoints, or are you still anchoring to the high end of the prior range?
2. H2 marketing efficiency: You flagged that marketing efficiency gains will moderate in H2 as you lap H2 2025. Can you quantify the expected step-down in marketing leverage? How much of the Q1 efficiency gain was durable vs. one-time?
3. AI cost trajectory: You flagged rising AI token costs in H2. Can you size the expected headwind? How does the productivity offset from AI tools ("hundreds of millions in realized marketing value") compare to the incremental cost?
4. B2B growth sustainability: B2B bookings grew 22% in Q1 and have delivered ~18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. What is the sustainable growth rate as the business scales? How is the Uber partnership ramping, and when does CarTrawler close?
5. Vrbo recovery: Vrbo had a strong Q1 with >30% of bookings on supplier-funded promotions. Is the underlying conversion improvement (Weather Promise, VrboCare, guest favorite badge) driving organic demand, or is the recovery primarily promotion-driven? What does the booking window look like for summer?
6. AI/AEO traffic: You disclosed that AI/AEO-sourced traffic is less than 1.5% of total traffic but growing fast. What is the monetization rate of this channel vs. traditional search? How are you thinking about the risk of OpenAI or other LLMs eventually moving into commerce?
7. Capital return: You repurchased ~$700M in Q1 under the new $5B authorization. What is the expected buyback pace for the remainder of 2026? How do you balance buybacks vs. M&A (CarTrawler, Tiqets integration costs)?