FOX Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
FOX Report Adjusted EPS (Q4 FY26) BEAT pred ~$1.42 vs. cons $1.34 HIGH
FOX Report Total Revenue (Q4 FY26) BEAT pred ~$3.72B vs. cons $3.6B MEDIUM
FOX Report Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 FY26 / FY26 record) BEAT pred ~$955M vs. cons ~$913M (implied FY26 record ~$3.67B) MEDIUM
FOX Guide Post-Roku net leverage / deleveraging path LOWER guide ~2.8x net debt/EBITDA vs. cons ~2.5x expectation (pro-forma at close 1H CY27) MEDIUM
FOX Guide Buyback trajectory ($12B authorization) LOWER guide ~$0-0.5B/qtr near-term pace vs. cons ~$0.5B run-rate (FY27, effective pause into Roku close) MEDIUM
FOX Guide Fox One subscribers / World Cup cohort retention BETTER guide ~3M+ subs with churn below plan vs. cons ~2.5M sticky (FY27 exit) LOW
FOX Guide FY27 political advertising market BETTER guide ~$11B TAM, Fox over-indexed vs. cons ~$9-10B (midterm cycle, autumn FY27) LOW
FOX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
FOX Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.5% (FADE) Core beat (EPS/revenue/record EBITDA on World Cup) drives an initial relief pop, but the print is dominated by the Roku overhang: ~2.8x pro-forma leverage, ~27% dilution, and an effective buyback pause pull out-period per-share estimates and the capital-return thesis lower even after a headline beat. Regulatory/antitrust noise (Warren/DOJ) caps upside, so the day-1 gain fades back toward flat over the week as revisions reset the sum-of-parts. LOW