| FOX |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.32 vs. cons ~$1.25 (blended Street estimate, Q4 FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| FOX |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.78B vs. cons ~$3.62B (Q4 FY26) |
HIGH |
| FOX |
Report |
Fox One subscribers (post-World Cup) |
BEAT |
pred ~5.5M cumulative subs vs. buy-side/Street implied ~4.5M subs (as of June 30, 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| FOX |
Guide |
TV distribution revenue growth |
BETTER |
guide ~+2-3% growth vs. cons ~flat/0% (fiscal 2027) |
MEDIUM |
| FOX |
Guide |
Political advertising market outlook |
BETTER |
guide ~$11B midterm ad market reaffirmed/raised vs. cons prior ~$9B off-year estimate (fiscal H1 2027 / calendar Q4 2026) |
HIGH |
| FOX |
Guide |
Roku deal cost synergies |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$400M run-rate synergies reiterated vs. cons ~$400M as announced June 15 (by year 2 post-close, ~2028-2029) |
HIGH |
| FOX |
Guide |
NFL rights renegotiation timeline |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~no specific new timeline disclosed vs. cons/press expectation of talks starting before 2026 season end (fiscal 2027) |
LOW |
| FOX |
Guide |
Fox One churn/retention post-World Cup |
BETTER |
guide ~<8% monthly churn (better than expected) vs. cons ~12-15% typical post-event churn assumption (fiscal Q1 2027) |
MEDIUM |
| FOX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| FOX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.5% (FADE) |
A likely beat-and-raise quarter (EPS/revenue/Fox One subs ahead of depressed, recently-cut consensus, plus constructive political-ad and TV-distribution FY27 commentary) should spark an initial pop off a low bar (negative Earnings ESP into the print), but the World Cup benefit is a timing-driven, non-repeating tailwind that analysts will largely treat as one-off rather than raise durable out-period (FY27) estimates on, while the Roku deal overhang (dilution, $12B bridge financing, ~2.8x leverage, H1 2027 close, antitrust/S-4 timeline) reasserts itself as the dominant multi-day narrative once the initial print-driven excitement fades, especially after the stock's ~20% run-up off June lows into the print leaves little room for follow-through absent fresh deal clarity. |
LOW |