{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.32 vs. cons ~$1.25 (blended Street estimate, Q4 FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.78B vs. cons ~$3.62B (Q4 FY26)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fox One subscribers (post-World Cup)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~5.5M cumulative subs vs. buy-side/Street implied ~4.5M subs (as of June 30, 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "TV distribution revenue growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+2-3% growth vs. cons ~flat/0% (fiscal 2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Political advertising market outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$11B midterm ad market reaffirmed/raised vs. cons prior ~$9B off-year estimate (fiscal H1 2027 / calendar Q4 2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Roku deal cost synergies",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$400M run-rate synergies reiterated vs. cons ~$400M as announced June 15 (by year 2 post-close, ~2028-2029)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NFL rights renegotiation timeline",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~no specific new timeline disclosed vs. cons/press expectation of talks starting before 2026 season end (fiscal 2027)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fox One churn/retention post-World Cup",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~<8% monthly churn (better than expected) vs. cons ~12-15% typical post-event churn assumption (fiscal Q1 2027)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A likely beat-and-raise quarter (EPS/revenue/Fox One subs ahead of depressed, recently-cut consensus, plus constructive political-ad and TV-distribution FY27 commentary) should spark an initial pop off a low bar (negative Earnings ESP into the print), but the World Cup benefit is a timing-driven, non-repeating tailwind that analysts will largely treat as one-off rather than raise durable out-period (FY27) estimates on, while the Roku deal overhang (dilution, $12B bridge financing, ~2.8x leverage, H1 2027 close, antitrust/S-4 timeline) reasserts itself as the dominant multi-day narrative once the initial print-driven excitement fades, especially after the stock's ~20% run-up off June lows into the print leaves little room for follow-through absent fresh deal clarity.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}