Fox Corporation (FOX) — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
Ticker: FOX / FOXA Prepared: August 5, 2026 Upcoming Earnings: ~August 2026 (exact date TBD) Fiscal Quarter: Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)
1. Earnings Preview
Key Takeaway: The setup into Q4 FY2026 is constructive on advertising (FIFA World Cup + early midterm political spend), but the Roku acquisition announcement on June 15 has dominated the narrative — sending FOX shares down ~15% since earnings as the market digests deal complexity, leverage, and dilution risk — making the print itself secondary to management's deal update and FY2027 guidance.
FOX heads into Q4 FY2026 with strong underlying business momentum — advertising trends described as "very healthy advertising market" with no cancellations and healthy scatter pricing, Tubi growing 23% in Q3 and pacing at or above that in April/May, and FOX One continuing to exceed subscriber and churn expectations. The FIFA Men's World Cup (104 matches over 5 weeks, split ~50/50 between Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27) is the single biggest revenue driver for the quarter, expected to be EBITDA accretive on an overall company basis primarily through broadcast. Management guided to record full-year EBITDA for FY2026 at Q3 earnings, and consensus has moved modestly higher since then. However, the June 15 announcement of the $22B Roku acquisition — a cash-and-stock deal at $160/share — has reset the investment debate entirely: FOX shares fell ~19% on the announcement day and have only partially recovered, as investors weigh ~2.8x pro forma net leverage, 152M new Class A shares issued (~27% dilution), and integration risk against the strategic logic of combining FOX's live content with Roku's 100M+ household CTV platform. The wildcard for the print is whether management provides any updated FY2027 guidance framework that incorporates Roku, and whether the advertising market commentary (particularly on political/midterm spend) surprises to the upside.
2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a moderate bar — advertising estimates have been revised up since Q3 earnings reflecting World Cup tailwinds, but the Roku deal overhang has shifted investor focus away from the standalone print. Television advertising revenue (particularly the World Cup-driven step-up) is the bigger swing factor for the quarter.
Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q4 FY2026)
KPI | Last Quarter Actual (Q3 FY26) | Prior Year Period (Q4 FY25) | Consensus Estimate (Q4 FY26) | YoY Change | Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Total Revenue | $3,994M | $3,287M | $3,647M | +11.0% | Record FY EBITDA (full year) | N/A (no Q4 specific) |
Adjusted EBITDA | $954M | $939M | $1,002M | +6.7% | Record FY EBITDA | N/A |
Operating EPS | $1.32 | $1.27 | $1.39 | +9.4% | N/A | N/A |
Advertising Revenue | $1,556M | $1,078M | $1,371M | +27.2% | Double-digit growth ex-Super Bowl continuing | N/A |
Cable Network Revenue | $1,741M | $1,532M | $1,630M | +6.4% | N/A | N/A |
Television Revenue | $2,197M | $1,707M | $1,959M | +14.8% | FIFA World Cup ~50% in Q4 | N/A |
Distribution Revenue | $2,107M | $1,933M | $1,982M | +2.5% | TV distribution ~flat FY26; Cable +5% | N/A |
Tubi Revenue | $369M | $291M | $359M | +23.4% | 23% growth in Q3; pacing at or above in Apr/May | N/A |
Cable Advertising Revenue | $390M | $378M | $425M | +12.4% | N/A | N/A |
Television Advertising Revenue | $1,166M | $700M | $956M | +36.6% | FIFA World Cup primary driver | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Note: Television advertising is the key swing factor — the $956M consensus estimate implies a massive YoY step-up driven by the FIFA World Cup. Comcast reported $440M in incremental domestic advertising revenue from the World Cup in its Q2 (calendar), providing a useful benchmark for the scale of the event.
Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)
Top KPI #1: Total Revenue
Quarter | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q4 FY24 | $3,092M | $3,101M | -0.3% | Miss |
Q1 FY25 | $3,564M | $3,375M | +5.6% | Beat |
Q2 FY25 | $5,078M | $4,835M | +5.0% | Beat |
Q3 FY25 | $4,371M | $4,191M | +4.3% | Beat |
Q4 FY25 | $3,287M | $3,117M | +5.5% | Beat |
Q1 FY26 | $3,738M | $3,575M | +4.6% | Beat |
Q2 FY26 | $5,182M | $5,090M | +1.8% | Beat |
Q3 FY26 | $3,994M | $3,815M | +4.7% | Beat |
Top KPI #2: Adjusted EBITDA
Quarter | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q4 FY24 | $773M | $700M | +10.4% | Beat |
Q1 FY25 | $1,048M | $884M | +18.6% | Beat |
Q2 FY25 | $781M | $580M | +34.7% | Beat |
Q3 FY25 | $856M | $757M | +13.1% | Beat |
Q4 FY25 | $939M | $781M | +20.2% | Beat |
Q1 FY26 | $1,065M | $829M | +28.5% | Beat |
Q2 FY26 | $692M | $464M | +49.1% | Beat |
Q3 FY26 | $954M | $745M | +28.1% | Beat |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Pattern: FOX has beaten EBITDA consensus in each of the last 8 quarters by an average of ~25%, suggesting the Street consistently underestimates profitability — the bar for Q4 FY2026 at $1,002M may again prove conservative given World Cup tailwinds and Tubi's continued outperformance.
3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution
Key Takeaway: Management's core guidance (record FY2026 EBITDA, double-digit advertising growth ex-Super Bowl, Tubi profitability) has been consistent and reinforced at the Moffett Nathanson conference on May 13. No formal guidance revision has been issued post-Q3 earnings, but the Roku acquisition announcement on June 15 materially changes the FY2027 financial framework and will be the primary focus of Q4 earnings commentary.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q3 FY26 Earnings, May 11) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Record full-year EBITDA (no specific number) | — | $3,713M | Consistent; reiterated at Moffett Nathanson May 13 |
FY2026 Total Revenue | No specific guidance | — | $16,569M | N/A |
Advertising Revenue (Q4) | Double-digit growth ex-Super Bowl continuing into Q4 | — | $1,371M | FIFA World Cup primary driver; political spend beginning to flow |
Television Distribution Revenue | ~Flat for full year FY26; returning to growth in FY27 | — | N/A | Consistent; ~1/3 of distribution income up for renewal in FY27, skewed toward TV |
Digital Investment (Tubi + FOX One) | Comfortably inside prior year's level (~$350M) | — | N/A | Tracking better than expected; Tubi 3 consecutive quarters breakeven or better |
Tubi Revenue Growth | Continued strong growth | — | $359M (Q4 FY26) | Pacing at or above 23% in April/May per Moffett Nathanson |
Roku Acquisition | Not applicable at Q3 earnings | Announced June 15: $22B EV, $160/share, 60% cash / 40% stock; expected close 1H CY2027 | N/A | $400M run-rate cost synergies; FCF accretive by year 2; pro forma leverage ~2.8x |
4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q4 FY2026 have moved modestly higher since Q3 earnings (May 16 baseline), reflecting World Cup tailwinds and continued advertising strength. FY2027 estimates are essentially unchanged, as the market awaits management's first formal guidance on the Roku-combined entity — the most important output from the Q4 print.
KPI | Period | Estimate (May 16, post-Q3) | Current Consensus | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q3 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Total Revenue | Q4 FY2026 | $3,593M | $3,647M | +1.5% | No specific Q4 guidance | No change | — | N/A |
Total Revenue | FY2026 | $16,518M | $16,569M | +0.3% | Record EBITDA year | No change | — | N/A |
Total Revenue | FY2027 | $17,287M | $17,341M | +0.3% | No FY27 guidance | No change | — | N/A |
Adjusted EBITDA | Q4 FY2026 | $975M | $1,002M | +2.8% | Record FY EBITDA | No change | — | N/A |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY2026 | $3,686M | $3,713M | +0.7% | Record FY EBITDA | No change | — | N/A |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY2027 | $3,932M | $3,965M | +0.8% | No FY27 guidance | No change | — | N/A |
Operating EPS | Q4 FY2026 | $1.33 | $1.39 | +4.5% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
Operating EPS | FY2026 | $4.97 | $5.01 | +0.8% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
Operating EPS | FY2027 | $5.65 | $5.77 | +2.1% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
Advertising Revenue | Q4 FY2026 | $1,309M | $1,371M | +4.7% | Double-digit growth ex-Super Bowl | No change | — | N/A |
Tubi Revenue | Q4 FY2026 | $356M | $359M | +0.8% | Pacing at or above 23% growth | No change | — | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Commentary: Estimates have drifted modestly higher across the board since Q3 earnings, consistent with management's bullish tone on advertising and World Cup tailwinds. The more important question for the print is FY2027 guidance — the Street has not yet incorporated Roku into its models (deal expected to close 1H CY2027), so any color on the combined entity's financial profile will be the primary catalyst.
5. Stock Performance
Key Takeaway: FOX has underperformed sharply since Q3 earnings (-14.7% vs. S&P 500 +4.1% and XLC -4.1%), almost entirely driven by the Roku acquisition announcement on June 15 which sent shares down ~19% in two days — the stock has partially recovered but remains well below pre-deal levels, reflecting ongoing investor skepticism about deal complexity and leverage.
FOX vs. XLC (Communication Services ETF) vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at May 11, 2026 (Last Earnings Date). Source: Stock Price Data.
FOX shares closed at $61.18 on May 11 (earnings day) and have declined to $52.20 as of August 5, 2026 — a loss of $8.98 / -14.7%. The stock initially drifted lower in the weeks following Q3 earnings (down ~3% through June 11), then collapsed ~19% over June 15-17 on the Roku acquisition announcement. The XLC (Communication Services ETF) is down only -4.1% over the same period, and the S&P 500 is up +4.1%, underscoring that FOX's underperformance is company-specific rather than sector-driven. The stock has partially recovered from its June lows (~$44-45 range) as investors have had time to digest the deal rationale, but remains ~15% below pre-announcement levels. The key question heading into Q4 earnings is whether a strong standalone print and/or constructive deal update can catalyze a re-rating.
6. Material News & Developments
Key Takeaway: The Roku acquisition (announced June 15) is the dominant development — a transformative $22B deal that resets FOX's financial profile and strategic identity. Secondary catalysts include CEO/CFO contract extensions and the FIFA World Cup's impact on Q4 results.
- June 15, 2026 — FOX Announces $22B Acquisition of Roku: FOX agreed to acquire Roku at $160/share (60% cash / 40% stock), valuing Roku at ~$22B enterprise value. The deal creates a combined entity reaching 230M+ people monthly in the U.S., with $9B in LTM advertising revenue. Expected $400M in run-rate cost synergies; FCF accretive by year 2; pro forma net leverage ~2.8x. FOX issued 152M new Class A shares (~27% dilution). Anthony Wood (Roku CEO) to join FOX Board at close. Implication: Transformative deal that shifts FOX's business mix toward high-growth CTV/streaming verticals but introduces significant leverage and integration risk; regulatory approval (HSR) is a key gating item; expected close 1H CY2027.
- June 30, 2026 — FOX Secures $1B Term Loan for Roku Acquisition: FOX entered into a $1B senior unsecured term loan facility with Morgan Stanley as administrative agent (2-year maturity post-close), supplementing the $12B bridge financing commitment. Implication: Financing structure taking shape; term loan is contingent on deal close.
- June 11, 2026 — CEO Lachlan Murdoch and CFO Steven Tomsic Employment Extended Through June 2030: Compensation Committee extended both executives' contracts; Murdoch's target annual bonus increased to $9M and equity award to $20M; Tomsic's base salary increased to $2M. Implication: Management stability signal ahead of a complex multi-year integration; extensions likely tied to Roku deal execution.
- May 13, 2026 — Moffett Nathanson Conference: Management reiterated "very healthy" advertising market with no cancellations, scatter pricing up, and Tubi pacing at or above 23% growth in April/May. Confirmed Tubi's 20% long-term EBITDA margin target (not FY2027). FOX One described as "pure incremental" with churn "far less than expected." Implication: Reinforced Q4 setup; no negative pre-announcements.
- Q4 FY2026 — FIFA Men's World Cup (June-July 2026): FOX is broadcasting the first U.S.-hosted World Cup in 30+ years — 104 matches over 5 weeks. Revenue/EBITDA split ~50/50 between Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. Broadcast is the primary revenue driver; cable contribution is revenue-light and not EBITDA accretive on its own. Tubi simulcasting 2 games (opening match + first USA match) for brand/audience benefit. Implication: Largest single revenue event in Q4; Comcast reported $440M in incremental domestic ad revenue from the World Cup in its Q2 (calendar), providing a benchmark for scale.
- Autumn 2026 — Midterm Election Cycle Building: Political ad market estimated at $11B for the midterms (record for a midterm year). FOX's primary beneficiaries are Fox Television Stations (local linear) and Tubi (digital/CTV personalization); FOX News benefits indirectly through elevated viewership. FOX already seeing record political revenue for an off-year. Implication: Meaningful FY2027 Q1 tailwind beginning to build in Q4 FY2026.
7. Peer Commentaries — Last 60 Days (Read-Through for Q4 FY2026)
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the last 60 days is broadly constructive for FOX's Q4 FY2026 setup — the advertising market is described as healthy across digital and TV, the FIFA World Cup drove record engagement and $440M in incremental advertising revenue for Comcast/NBCUniversal, and CTV advertising continues to take share from linear. The primary risk flagged by peers is pricing pressure in streaming advertising due to growing supply.
Note: The following commentary is sourced from peers reporting on or discussing the April–June 2026 quarter (FOX's Q4 FY2026). Commentary from prior quarter earnings calls about prior quarter results has been excluded.
1. Advertising Market Health — Broadly Constructive
- Disney (DIS) — Q3 FY2026 Earnings (August 5, 2026): Disney CFO Hugh Johnston characterized the overall market as "healthy in sports" heading into fall but "competitive in streaming" due to growing supply creating "some pricing pressure." Upfront total volume commitments were "up double digits versus last year" with sports volumes "up low teens." Disney has "sold out the Super Bowl inventory." Healthcare, financial services, and political categories showing "good momentum" while telecom, restaurants, and CPG are "displaying some softness." Read-through for FOX: Healthy sports advertising market is directly positive for FOX's NFL/sports portfolio; political category strength is a direct tailwind for FOX Television Stations and Tubi in the midterm cycle.
- Meta (META) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 29, 2026): Meta reported Family of Apps ad revenue of $59.4B, up 27% YoY, with global average price per ad up 12% YoY. "Business momentum continued in Q2 with strong execution across our core ads and engagement initiatives." Q3 2026 total revenue guidance of $61–$64B. Read-through for FOX: Strong digital advertising demand environment is broadly positive; Meta's ad price growth suggests healthy advertiser budgets that should benefit FOX's scatter and upfront markets.
- Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22, 2026): YouTube advertising revenues grew 13% to $11.1B, with "notable strength in the living room." The FIFA World Cup 2026 was the "most viewed World Cup in YouTube history" with "over 1.7 billion unique viewers" and "over 550 million watched them on their televisions." Read-through for FOX: YouTube's World Cup viewership data validates the massive scale of the event; FOX's exclusive broadcast rights position it to capture the premium advertising dollars that YouTube's data shows were flowing into the event.
- Comcast/NBCUniversal (CMCSA) — Q2 2026 Earnings Release: Comcast reported $440M in incremental domestic advertising revenue from the FIFA World Cup. Domestic advertising revenue (Media segment) was up 55% YoY including World Cup, or +23.5% excluding it. Peacock achieved quarterly profitability for the first time with EBITDA of $189M. Read-through for FOX: The $440M Comcast World Cup advertising figure is the most direct benchmark for FOX's Q4 TV advertising upside — FOX has exclusive broadcast rights to the tournament, suggesting its World Cup advertising contribution could be comparable or larger given broadcast's premium positioning.
2. Streaming & CTV — Continued Growth, Some Pricing Pressure
- Netflix (NFLX) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 16, 2026): Netflix guided Q3 2026 revenue growth of 12% reported / 11% FX neutral, driven by membership growth, pricing, and higher ads revenue. Netflix estimates it captures only ~7% of the $670B addressable revenue market and ~5% of global TV view share. "Strong advertiser demand" cited. Read-through for FOX: Netflix's continued growth in ad-supported streaming validates the AVOD/streaming advertising market that Tubi competes in; Netflix's low market share estimate suggests the overall streaming advertising pie is still growing rapidly.
- Roku (ROKU) — Needham Conference (May 12, 2026): Roku's CFO noted CTV advertising grew 26–27% in Q1, with advertising margins "just over 60%." Roku has "over 100 million streaming households" and is present in "over 50% of U.S. broadband homes." Tailwinds from "linear TV moving to CTV and search/social moving to CTV." Read-through for FOX: Roku's scale data (now FOX's pending acquisition target) validates the strategic rationale for the deal; CTV advertising growth of 26–27% is a strong read-through for Tubi's advertising trajectory.
- Disney (DIS) — Q3 FY2026 Earnings (August 5, 2026): Disney is exploring a "free product for consumers" to expand reach, accelerate ad revenue growth, and drive top-of-funnel Disney+ subscriber growth. Streaming market described as "competitive" with "pricing pressure" due to growing supply. Read-through for FOX: Disney's move toward a free/AVOD tier validates Tubi's positioning; however, increased supply from Disney and others could create some CPM pressure in the AVOD market.
- NBCUniversal/Comcast (CMCSA) — Evercore TMT Conference (June 2, 2026): Peacock CFO noted "a renaissance in live viewing" despite cord-cutting trends, with NBA playoff Game 7 drawing 16M viewers and the Super Bowl being "the most viewed live event in NBC's 100-year history." Peacock pacing to profitability in Q2. Read-through for FOX: Live content's resilience validates FOX's core strategy; Peacock's profitability milestone is a positive read-through for Tubi's own profitability trajectory.
3. Cord Cutting & Distribution — Stabilizing but Structural Pressure Continues
- Comcast (CMCSA) — Q2 2026 Earnings Release: Comcast lost 280,000 domestic video customers in Q2 2026, with total domestic video customers declining from 11.77M to 10.67M YoY. Video revenue down 7.8% YoY. Read-through for FOX: Continued cord-cutting pressure is a headwind for FOX's distribution revenue, though FOX's pricing power (cable distribution revenue grew 5% in Q3 FY26 despite sub declines) has been a notable outperformer.
- Comcast (CMCSA) — Moffett Nathanson Conference (May 14, 2026): Comcast's video subscriber losses easing but still contracting at a 9.5% annual rate, vs. Charter at 1.3%. Comcast offering "skinnier bundles" and 12 streaming app bundles. Read-through for FOX: The divergence between Comcast (9.5% decline) and Charter (1.3% decline) suggests distribution strategy matters; FOX's own sub erosion at under 6.5% (before FOX One) is tracking better than Comcast, validating FOX's distribution relationships.
- Paramount Skydance (PARA) — Needham Conference (May 12, 2026): Paramount "very clear eyed on the secular declines, especially on cable" and modeling conservatively. TV Media segment revenue down 6% in Q1. Paramount+ grew 17% YoY with ARPU up 14% after price increase. Read-through for FOX: Paramount's candid acknowledgment of cable secular decline is a reminder of the structural headwind; however, FOX's differentiated live news/sports positioning has allowed it to outperform peers on distribution revenue.
8. Insider Transaction Activity
Key Takeaway: No open-market buys or discretionary sells from senior executives since Q3 earnings — the only Form 4 activity was a routine RSU vesting and tax withholding transaction by the Chief Legal Officer, which carries no informational signal. The absence of insider buying ahead of a transformative acquisition is notable but not unusual given blackout periods and MNPI constraints around the Roku deal.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date (Effective) | Date (Disclosed) | Note |
Adam G. Ciongoli | Chief Legal and Policy Officer | RSU Vesting (M code) | ~$1.8M (26,883 shares) | June 30, 2026 | July 1, 2026 | Routine RSU vesting — no informational signal |
Adam G. Ciongoli | Chief Legal and Policy Officer | Tax Withholding (F code) | ~$0.7M (10,523 shares) | June 30, 2026 | July 1, 2026 | Shares withheld for tax obligation — not a discretionary sale |
Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4). Note: No open-market purchases (P code) or discretionary sales (S code) were filed by any FOX executive or director since Q3 earnings on May 11, 2026. The CEO and CFO employment extensions (June 11) included increased equity compensation but no open-market transactions. The absence of insider buying ahead of a transformative acquisition is notable but not unusual given blackout periods and material non-public information constraints around the Roku deal.