Company | Fox Corporation | Ticker | FOX (NASDAQ) |
Reporting Period | Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) | Earnings Date | August 6, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET |
Prepared | August 5, 2026 | Last Earnings | May 11, 2026 (Q3 FY2026) |
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus is a manageable bar, management guided explicitly to record full-year EBITDA, and the FIFA World Cup (split ~50/50 between Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27) plus early midterm political spend provide incremental tailwinds not fully priced into estimates; the biggest swing factor is the magnitude of World Cup advertising monetization on the broadcast side.
Heading into Q4 FY2026, Fox Corporation carries strong operational momentum: advertising revenue grew double digits ex-Super Bowl in Q3, Tubi posted its third consecutive quarter at breakeven or better, and Fox One continues to exceed subscriber and churn expectations. The bar set by consensus is not demanding — Q4 FY26 adjusted EPS consensus of ~$1.39 represents a modest step-up from Q3's $1.32 actual, and management's explicit guidance for record full-year EBITDA provides a credible floor. Estimate revisions have been broadly stable since the May 11 print, with FY26 EBITDA consensus edging up ~$27M and EPS up ~$44M, suggesting the Street has not aggressively front-run the World Cup tailwind. The stock has underperformed significantly since earnings — down ~15% vs. XLC flat and SPY +4% — driven almost entirely by the June 15 Roku acquisition announcement, which injected deal uncertainty and leverage concerns rather than any deterioration in underlying fundamentals. The key wildcard is the Roku deal itself: any update on regulatory progress, financing terms, or strategic rationale on the call could move the stock more than the Q4 operating results.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a manageable bar across all key metrics; advertising revenue is the bigger swing factor given World Cup monetization uncertainty, while Tubi revenue trajectory and digital investment spend are the secondary reads that could surprise in either direction.
KPI | Last Quarter Actual (Q3 FY26) | Prior Year Period (Q4 FY25) | Q4 FY26 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Total Revenue | $3,994M | $3,287M | $3,647M | +11.0% | Record FY EBITDA (no specific Q4 revenue guide) | N/A |
Adjusted EBITDA | $692M | $939M | $1,002M | +6.7% | Record full-year EBITDA (implies strong Q4) | N/A (directional only) |
Diluted Operating EPS | $1.32 | $1.27 | $1.39 | +9.4% | No specific EPS guidance | N/A |
Advertising Revenue | $1,556M | $1,078M | $1,371M | +27.2% | Double-digit growth ex-Super Bowl continuing into Q4; World Cup EBITDA accretive on broadcast | Consensus appears conservative vs. World Cup tailwind |
Distribution Revenue | $2,107M | $2,039M | $1,982M | -2.7% | TV distribution ~flat for FY26; cable +5% in Q3 | Consensus slightly below Q3 run-rate; in line with guidance |
Tubi Revenue | $369M | $291M | $359M | +23.4% | Continued rapid growth; World Cup simulcast on Tubi | Consensus slightly below Q3 actual; potential upside from World Cup |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of August 5, 2026. Q4 FY26 = quarter ended June 30, 2026 (VA label: 4QFY-2026). Prior year period = Q4 FY25 (quarter ended June 30, 2025). Last quarter actual = Q3 FY26 (quarter ended March 31, 2026).
Quarter | Reported ($M) | Consensus ($M) | Surprise % | Result |
Q4 FY24 (Jun-24) | $1,007M | $992M | +1.5% | Beat |
Q1 FY25 (Sep-24) | $1,329M | $1,282M | +3.7% | Beat |
Q2 FY25 (Dec-24) | $2,422M | $2,258M | +7.3% | Beat |
Q3 FY25 (Mar-25) | $2,036M | $1,907M | +6.8% | Beat |
Q4 FY25 (Jun-25) | $1,078M | $978M | +10.2% | Beat |
Q1 FY26 (Sep-25) | $1,412M | $1,273M | +10.9% | Beat |
Q2 FY26 (Dec-25) | $2,455M | $2,296M | +6.9% | Beat |
Q3 FY26 (Mar-26) | $1,556M | $1,423M | +9.4% | Beat |
Quarter | Reported ($M) | Consensus ($M) | Surprise % | Result |
Q4 FY24 (Jun-24) | $773M | $700M | +10.4% | Beat |
Q1 FY25 (Sep-24) | $1,048M | $884M | +18.6% | Beat |
Q2 FY25 (Dec-24) | $781M | $580M | +34.6% | Beat |
Q3 FY25 (Mar-25) | $856M | $757M | +13.1% | Beat |
Q4 FY25 (Jun-25) | $939M | $781M | +20.2% | Beat |
Q1 FY26 (Sep-25) | $1,065M | $829M | +28.5% | Beat |
Q2 FY26 (Dec-25) | $692M | $464M | +49.1% | Beat |
Q3 FY26 (Mar-26) | $954M | $745M | +28.1% | Beat |
Pattern: FOX has beaten advertising revenue consensus in each of the last 8 quarters, with surprise magnitude ranging from +1.5% to +10.9%; EBITDA beats have been even more consistent and larger in magnitude (averaging ~+25% over the last 4 quarters), suggesting the Street systematically underestimates Fox's operating leverage. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Management's tone has been consistently bullish and has not shifted since the May 11 Q3 earnings call; the only material post-earnings development is the June 15 Roku acquisition announcement, which introduces balance sheet complexity but does not alter the operating guidance trajectory.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q3 FY26 Earnings Call, May 11, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Full-Year FY26 EBITDA | Record full-year EBITDA (directional, no specific figure) | — | $3,713M | Unchanged since Q3 call; consensus implies ~+10% YoY growth vs. FY25 actuals |
Full-Year FY26 Digital Investment | Comfortably inside $290M (prior year level); started year at ~$350M | — | N/A — not tracked separately in VA | Unchanged; pacing better than prior year YTD as of Q3 call |
TV Distribution Revenue (FY26) | ~Flat for full year FY26; returns to growth in FY27 | — | FY26 total distribution: $8,006M | Unchanged; consensus consistent with flat TV distribution guidance |
Q4 FY26 Advertising | Double-digit growth momentum continuing into Q4; World Cup EBITDA accretive on broadcast; ~50% of World Cup financial impact in Q4 FY26 | — | $1,371M (+27% YoY) | Unchanged; consensus may be conservative given World Cup tailwind and record political revenue for an off year |
Roku Acquisition (post-earnings) | N/A (announced June 15, 2026) | $1B term loan secured June 30, 2026 (Morgan Stanley as agent); 2-year maturity post-close | N/A | ↑ New: 8-K June 15 & June 30, 2026; deal pending regulatory/shareholder approval; leverage covenant of 4.5x operating income ratio |
Key Takeaway: Estimates have been broadly stable-to-slightly-higher since the May 11 print, with FY26 EBITDA up ~$27M and FY26 EPS up ~$44M from the post-earnings baseline — the Street has not aggressively front-run the World Cup or political tailwinds, leaving room for upside surprise on the Q4 print.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q3 Earnings (as of May 18, 2026) | Current Consensus (Aug 5, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q3 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Total Revenue (Q4 FY26) | $3,593M | $3,647M | +1.5% | No specific Q4 guide | Unchanged | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EBITDA (Q4 FY26) | $975M | $1,002M | +2.8% | Record FY EBITDA (directional) | Unchanged | N/A | Tracking above prior year Q4 ($939M actual) |
Diluted Op. EPS (Q4 FY26) | $1.334 | $1.390 | +4.2% | No specific EPS guide | Unchanged | N/A | N/A |
Advertising Revenue (Q4 FY26) | $1,309M | $1,371M | +4.7% | Double-digit growth ex-Super Bowl continuing; World Cup ~50% in Q4 | Unchanged | N/A | Consensus may be conservative vs. World Cup tailwind |
Total Revenue (FY26) | $16,518M | $16,569M | +0.3% | Record FY EBITDA (directional) | Unchanged | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EBITDA (FY26) | $3,686M | $3,713M | +0.7% | Record FY EBITDA | Unchanged | N/A | Consensus tracking with guidance; record FY EBITDA implies ~+10% YoY |
Diluted Op. EPS (FY26) | $4.967 | $5.012 | +0.9% | No specific EPS guide | Unchanged | N/A | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-earnings baseline uses consensus as of May 18, 2026 (5 trading days after May 11 Q3 earnings). Current consensus as of August 5, 2026.
The modest upward drift in Q4 and FY26 estimates since the May 11 print reflects the Street gradually incorporating the World Cup tailwind and continued advertising strength, but the revisions are small relative to the historical beat magnitude. The gap between consensus and management's directional guidance (record EBITDA) suggests the Street is not fully pricing in the upside scenario, particularly on advertising revenue where Fox has beaten by 7–11% in recent quarters.
Key Takeaway: The stock's ~15% underperformance vs. XLC since the May 11 earnings is almost entirely sentiment/multiple-driven, not fundamental — the Roku acquisition announcement on June 15 triggered a sharp de-rating on leverage and deal uncertainty concerns, masking what has been strong underlying operational execution.
Since the Q3 FY2026 earnings date (May 11, 2026), FOX has declined approximately 14.7% (from $61.18 to $52.20 as of August 5, 2026), while the Communication Services ETF (XLC) declined approximately 4.1% (from $115.58 to $110.87) and the S&P 500 (SPY) gained approximately +4.1% (from $739.30 to $769.79). The divergence is stark: FOX underperformed XLC by ~11 percentage points and the S&P 500 by ~19 percentage points over the period. The stock traded near $61 through early June before collapsing ~23% in a single session on June 15 when Fox announced the definitive agreement to acquire Roku in a cash-and-stock deal. The stock partially recovered from its June 22 trough of ~$44.93 to the current ~$52 range as investors digested the deal terms and the $1B term loan financing secured June 30. The underlying operating story — record advertising, Tubi profitability, Fox One outperformance — has not changed; the stock's weakness is entirely a function of deal risk premium and leverage concerns. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.
Series | May 11, 2026 (Base) | Aug 5, 2026 | Return Since Earnings |
FOX | $61.18 (indexed: 100) | $52.20 (indexed: 85.3) | -14.7% |
XLC (Comm. Services ETF) | $115.58 (indexed: 100) | $110.87 (indexed: 95.9) | -4.1% |
SPY (S&P 500) | $739.30 (indexed: 100) | $769.79 (indexed: 104.1) | +4.1% |
Key Events Since May 11, 2026:
Key Takeaway: The Roku acquisition is the dominant development since last earnings and will likely consume most of the Q&A on the August 6 call; the underlying operating business — World Cup, political ad ramp, Fox One, Tubi — remains on track and represents the more durable earnings driver.
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider buys or discretionary sells were identified for FOX in the period since the May 11 earnings call; the absence of insider selling ahead of the Q4 print is a mild positive signal, though the Roku deal announcement may have imposed trading blackout restrictions.
No Form 4 open-market purchases (code P) or open-market sales (code S) were identified for FOX insiders in the period from May 11, 2026 through August 5, 2026 based on available SEC filing data. This is consistent with a trading blackout period that would typically be imposed following the announcement of a material transaction (the Roku acquisition, June 15, 2026). The absence of insider selling is a mild positive signal — no insiders appear to have used the post-earnings strength (stock near $61 in early June) to liquidate holdings ahead of the deal announcement. No 10b5-1 plan initiations or Form 144 filings were identified for FOX in this period.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the April–June 2026 reporting quarter is uniformly constructive for Fox's setup: the advertising market was healthy in sports, the FIFA World Cup drove record engagement and ad sales for peers, and streaming profitability milestones at Comcast/Peacock validate the AVOD monetization path that Tubi is following.
Scope note: The following commentary is drawn exclusively from earnings calls and disclosures made in the last 60 days (June 6 – August 5, 2026) that pertain to the April–June 2026 reporting quarter (FOX's Q4 FY2026). Commentary about prior quarters' results only (e.g., Q1 2026 results discussed on a Q1 call) is excluded. Forward-only guidance about future quarters is noted as such and not treated as a current-quarter read-through.
Reporting period covered: Disney's fiscal Q3 2026 (April–June 2026 calendar quarter) — directly contemporaneous with FOX's Q4 FY2026.
Theme | Disney Commentary (April–June 2026) | Direction for FOX | Read-Through Limitations |
Advertising Market — Sports | "The current tone I would characterize the market as healthy in sports, which obviously plays to our strength heading into the fall." Upfront: "total volume commitments were up double digits versus last year. Sports volumes were up low teens." Super Bowl inventory "sold out." | Positive | Disney's sports portfolio (ESPN, ABC) differs from Fox's (Fox Sports, FS1); Super Bowl is Disney's in FY27, not Fox's. Directional read-through on sports ad market health is valid. |
Advertising Market — Streaming/AVOD | "Competitive in streaming, especially given the growth of supply in the marketplace. That supply is creating some pricing pressure for us and for others." | Mixed | Tubi is AVOD (free), not a subscription streamer; pricing pressure in subscription streaming may not directly apply. Tubi's ad inventory is growing rapidly and may face similar supply dynamics. |
Advertising Categories | "Good momentum in health care and financial services and in the political categories, while telecom and restaurants and CPG are displaying some softness." | Positive | Fox News is heavily weighted toward pharma, finance, and political advertising — all cited as strong. CPG softness is less relevant to Fox's cable news mix. |
Live Sports Demand | "The unparalleled power of live sports over the past few months. The NBA finals were the highest rated in 28 years, and ESPN generated its most watched first half of the calendar year since 2012." | Positive | Fox does not carry NBA; read-through is on consumer appetite for live sports broadly, which supports Fox's NFL, MLB, and World Cup programming. |
Streaming Industry Consolidation / Roku Deal | "The streaming industry is consolidating through M&A and through a growing number of partnerships. More strategic corporate actions taking place following Fox's Roku acquisition. The industry is investing against free streaming products at an accelerated pace." Disney views "a more consolidated industry as a better investment backdrop." | Neutral / Strategic Validation | Disney's characterization of the Roku deal as part of a broader industry trend toward free streaming investment validates Fox's strategic rationale, though it does not address deal execution risk or leverage concerns. |
Reporting period covered: Comcast's Q2 2026 (April–June 2026 calendar quarter) — directly contemporaneous with FOX's Q4 FY2026.
Theme | Comcast Commentary (April–June 2026) | Direction for FOX | Read-Through Limitations |
FIFA World Cup Advertising & Engagement | "The World Cup has been terrific for us, delivering the biggest Spanish language sporting event in U.S. media history and record engagement for Telemundo and Peacock." Peacock ad revenue "increased nearly 70%, fueled by multiple drivers with notable call outs, including the simulcast of Telemundo's FIFA World Cup." Revenue "increased 5%, in part benefiting from Telemundo and Peacock's successful airing of the FIFA World Cup." | Strongly Positive | Comcast's World Cup coverage was primarily Spanish-language (Telemundo); Fox's coverage is English-language broadcast. English-language viewership dynamics may differ. Fox has more matches (104 total) and the primary English broadcast rights. |
Streaming Profitability (AVOD/SVOD) | Peacock "reached profitability for the first time, generating $189 million of EBITDA in the quarter." Revenue "increased 54%, driven by strong growth in both distribution and advertising revenue." | Positive | Peacock is a subscription service (SVOD) while Tubi is AVOD (free). Profitability drivers differ. However, the milestone validates that streaming platforms can achieve profitability when anchored by live sports and popular content. |
Broad Advertising Market | "The NBA, Love Island and the World Cup are all contributing to strong engagement and robust ad sales across both linear and streaming." | Positive | Comcast's ad market commentary reflects its specific content slate (NBA, Love Island). Fox does not carry NBA. The "robust ad sales" characterization is broadly supportive of the advertising environment. |
Reporting period covered: Netflix's Q2 2026 (April–June 2026 calendar quarter) — directly contemporaneous with FOX's Q4 FY2026.
Read-Through Assessment: Netflix's Q2 2026 results disappointed investors with a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth, sending the stock down ~8% on the day. However, the read-through to FOX is limited and largely neutral-to-positive: Netflix's deceleration reflects its subscription model dynamics and content cycle, not the advertising market or live sports environment where Fox competes. Netflix does not carry live sports at scale and does not compete directly with Fox News or Fox Sports for advertising dollars. The slowing growth narrative at Netflix may actually be a mild positive for Fox — it reinforces the value of live, appointment-based programming (Fox's core strength) versus on-demand subscription content. Netflix's Q3 guidance was below expectations, which the market interpreted as a sign of plateauing engagement, but this does not read through to Fox's advertising-driven model.
Theme | Netflix Commentary (April–June 2026) | Direction for FOX | Read-Through Limitations |
Streaming Engagement / Growth | Second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth; Q3 guidance below expectations; stock fell ~8%. Market cited plateauing engagement and intense competition. | Neutral / Mild Positive | Netflix is SVOD; Fox's Tubi is AVOD. Netflix's deceleration reflects subscription saturation, not ad market dynamics. Reinforces value of live programming (Fox's strength) vs. on-demand content. |
Reporting period covered: Omnicom's Q2 2026 (April–June 2026 calendar quarter) — directly contemporaneous with FOX's Q4 FY2026.
Theme | Omnicom Commentary (April–June 2026) | Direction for FOX | Read-Through Limitations |
Broad Advertising Market Health | Organic revenue growth of 6.1%, significantly outpacing Street expectations of 3.9%. Full-year organic revenue guidance raised. Broad-based demand across categories. | Positive | Omnicom is an advertising agency; its revenue reflects client ad spend budgets, not media company ad revenue directly. Strong agency revenue is a leading indicator of healthy advertiser demand, which benefits Fox as a media seller. |
Peer | Report Date | Key Read-Through for FOX Q4 FY26 | Net Direction |
Disney (DIS) | Aug 5, 2026 | Sports ad market "healthy"; upfront volumes up double digits; pharma/finance/political categories strong; streaming supply creating pricing pressure; Roku deal validated as industry trend | Positive |
Comcast (CMCSA) | Jul 23, 2026 | World Cup drove record engagement and ad sales; Peacock reached profitability; "robust ad sales across both linear and streaming"; World Cup "biggest Spanish language sporting event in U.S. media history" | Strongly Positive |
Netflix (NFLX) | Jul 16, 2026 | Slowing growth reinforces value of live/appointment programming; limited direct read-through to Fox's ad-driven model | Neutral / Mild Positive |
Omnicom (OMC) | Jul 28, 2026 | Organic revenue +6.1% vs. +3.9% expected; full-year guidance raised; broad advertiser demand healthy | Positive |
Overall peer read-through is constructive for FOX's Q4 FY2026 print. The advertising market was healthy in sports and political categories during the April–June quarter, the FIFA World Cup drove record engagement and ad sales for peers with English-language broadcast rights, and streaming profitability milestones at Comcast validate the AVOD monetization trajectory that Tubi is following. The one cautionary note is Disney's observation of pricing pressure in streaming advertising due to supply growth — a dynamic that could affect Tubi's CPM trajectory at the margin, though Tubi's rapid revenue growth (+23% in Q3) suggests it is not yet a material headwind.