Company | Global Payments Inc. | Earnings Date | August 5, 2026 (8:00 AM ET) |
Ticker | GPN (NYSE) | Prepared | August 4, 2026 |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) | Sector ETF | IPAY (ETF Managers Group Mobile Payments ETF) |
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low-to-moderate bar — estimates have drifted ~2% lower on EPS since the Q1 print, creating a modest cushion. Revenue is the bigger swing factor given the guided ~100 bps headwind from Middle East travel and Link2Gov softness; any upside there would be the clearest beat signal.
KPI | Last Quarter Actual (1Q 2026) | Prior Year Period (2Q 2025) | Consensus Estimate (2Q 2026) | YoY Change (est.) | Guidance (FY 2026) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Adjusted Net Revenue (Operating) | $2,856M | $2,361M | $3,170M | +34.3% YoY (incl. Worldpay) | ~5% normalized CC growth; FY ~$12.4B | Tracking to guidance midpoint |
Adjusted EPS (Diluted, Operating) | $2.96 | $3.10 | $3.45 | +11.3% YoY | $13.80–$14.00 | ~$0.10 below midpoint on Q2 alone; FY on track |
Adjusted EBITDA (Operating) | $1,258M | $1,155M | $1,479M | +28.1% YoY | ~150 bps margin expansion FY | Consistent with margin expansion target |
Revenue — Merchant Solutions excl. Worldpay (Operating) | $1,732M | $1,844M | $1,877M | +1.8% YoY | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Revenue — Worldpay (Operating) | $1,135M | N/A (pre-acquisition) | $1,293M | N/A | N/A (segment) | N/A |
Free Cash Flow (Analyst Published) | ($550M) | $665M | $671M | N/M (Q1 impacted by tax payments) | >90% FCF conversion FY | Tracking to guidance |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of August 4, 2026. 1Q 2026 actuals and 2Q 2025 actuals from Visible Alpha reported figures. FY 2026 guidance from GPN Q1 2026 earnings call (May 6, 2026). Note: Revenue YoY comparisons for total and Worldpay segment are not directly comparable due to Worldpay acquisition closing January 2026.
Quarter | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
1Q 2026 | $2.96 | $2.83 | +4.6% | Beat |
4Q 2025 | $3.18 | $3.17 | +0.3% | In-Line |
3Q 2025 | $3.26 | $3.25 | +0.3% | In-Line |
2Q 2025 | $3.10 | $3.06 | +1.3% | Beat |
1Q 2025 | $2.69 | $2.72 | -1.1% | Miss |
4Q 2024 | $2.85 | $2.95 | -3.4% | Miss |
3Q 2024 | $2.92 | $3.09 | -5.5% | Miss |
2Q 2024 | N/A — not in VA for this period | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Quarter | Reported ($M) | Consensus ($M) | Surprise % | Result |
1Q 2026 | $2,856 | $2,836 | +0.7% | Beat |
4Q 2025 | $2,320 | $2,328 | -0.3% | In-Line |
3Q 2025 | $2,429 | $2,403 | +1.1% | Beat |
2Q 2025 | $2,361 | $2,354 | +0.3% | In-Line |
1Q 2025 | $2,205 | $2,194 | +0.5% | Beat |
4Q 2024 | $2,289 | $2,305 | -0.7% | Miss |
3Q 2024 | $2,357 | $2,383 | -1.1% | Miss |
2Q 2024 | N/A — not in VA for this period | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Pattern: GPN has beaten or matched on revenue in 5 of the last 6 reported quarters, with misses concentrated in 2H 2024 before the transformation inflected. EPS beats have been more variable, with a meaningful beat in 1Q 2026 (+4.6%) suggesting the cost synergy ramp is ahead of schedule. The bar for Q2 2026 is set modestly below Q1 actuals, consistent with the guided headwinds. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been unchanged since the May 6 Q1 earnings call — management explicitly reaffirmed at both the May 20 JP Morgan conference and the June 10 Mizuho fireside with "nothing changed since our first quarter call." Tone is confident but not incrementally bullish; the only modification was a slight FX tailwind reduction (now <50 bps vs. prior expectation).
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 6, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Normalized CC Adj. Net Revenue Growth (FY 2026) | ~5% | Unchanged | ~5% (tracking) | Reaffirmed at JPM (May 20) and Mizuho (June 10) conferences; assumes travel normalizes by end of Q2 and stable macro |
Adjusted Operating Margin Expansion (FY 2026) | ~150 bps | Unchanged | Consistent with guidance | Driven by transformation efficiencies and Worldpay cost synergies, weighted to 2H 2026 |
Adjusted EPS (FY 2026) | $13.80–$14.00 | Unchanged | $13.78 | Consensus sits just below the low end of the range; slight drift lower since Q1 print but within rounding of guidance floor |
FCF Conversion (FY 2026) | >90% of adjusted net income | Unchanged | Tracking to guidance | Q1 FCF was negative due to large tax payments on Issuer Solutions divestiture gain; Q2 expected to normalize |
CapEx (FY 2026) | ~$1B (~8% of adj. net revenue) | Unchanged | N/A | Directed at go-forward strategic platforms; target tech architecture decision expected at mid-year 2026 |
FX Impact (FY 2026) | <50 bps tailwind to reported revenue growth | ↓ Reduced from prior expectation | N/A | ↓ Lowered on Q1 call due to USD strengthening; only change to guidance since last earnings |
Q2 2026 Revenue Headwind | Up to ~100 bps from Middle East conflict + Link2Gov tax softness | Unchanged | Embedded in Q2 consensus | Confirmed as materializing as expected at Mizuho (June 10); viewed as transient |
Capital Returns (FY 2026) | >$2B via buybacks + dividends; $7.5B target 2025–2027 | Unchanged | N/A | >50% of 2026 target expected complete by end of Q2; $500M ASR announced May 7, 2026 |
Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print — Q2 EPS is down ~2% and FY EPS is down ~0.7% from the post-earnings baseline — but remain within the guidance range. The drift reflects the market pricing in the guided headwinds rather than any fundamental deterioration; the gap between consensus and guidance midpoint is thin, leaving little cushion if Q2 misses.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (May 13, 2026) | Current Consensus (Aug 4, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call, May 6) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Adj. EPS — 2Q 2026 | $3.52 | $3.45 | -2.0% | N/A (Q2 not separately guided) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Adj. EPS — FY 2026 | $13.88 | $13.78 | -0.7% | $13.80–$14.00 | $13.80–$14.00 (unchanged) | 0% | -0.1% vs. midpoint ($13.90) |
Adj. Net Revenue — 2Q 2026 | $3,179M | $3,170M | -0.3% | N/A (Q2 not separately guided) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Adj. Net Revenue — FY 2026 | $12,452M | $12,418M | -0.3% | ~5% normalized CC growth (~$12.4B implied) | Unchanged | 0% | Tracking to guidance midpoint |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of May 13, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after the May 6 earnings release). Current consensus as of August 4, 2026. The steady downward drift in EPS estimates (from $3.52 to $3.45 for Q2, and $13.88 to $13.78 for FY) reflects the market absorbing the guided ~100 bps Q2 headwind rather than any incremental negative signal from management. FY consensus remains within the guidance range, suggesting the street views the headwinds as transient and the back-half acceleration thesis as intact.
Key Takeaway: GPN has dramatically outperformed both IPAY and the S&P 500 since the Q1 earnings date, rallying ~27% vs. IPAY +10% and SPY +5%. The move is almost entirely multiple-driven (EV/EBITDA expanded ~20% over 3 months) rather than estimate-driven, reflecting improving investor confidence in the Worldpay integration and transformation execution. The stock hit a trough of ~$62 in mid-June before a sharp re-rating, suggesting sentiment was the primary driver.
Date | GPN Price | GPN Indexed (Base=100) | IPAY Indexed | SPY Indexed |
May 6, 2026 (Q1 Earnings) | $69.63 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 29, 2026 | $75.51 | 108.4 | 98.9 | 103.1 |
June 10, 2026 (Mizuho Conference; trough) | $62.47 | 89.7 | 90.4 | 98.9 |
June 30, 2026 (Q2 end) | $72.56 | 104.2 | 98.3 | 101.8 |
July 28, 2026 (PayPal Q2 earnings) | $87.46 | 125.6 | 108.0 | 101.0 |
August 4, 2026 (Today) | $88.25 | 126.7 | 110.2 | 105.1 |
Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 (Q1 2026 earnings date). Sector ETF: IPAY (ETF Managers Group Mobile Payments ETF), selected as the most relevant sub-sector ETF for GPN's payment technology business.
Performance Decomposition: Over the past 3 months, GPN is +22.9% vs. IPAY +10.2% and SPY +5.1%. The stock performance decomposition shows that EV/EBITDA expanded ~20% over the 3-month window (from 5.67x to 6.83x current), while EPS estimates moved only modestly, confirming that multiple re-rating — not earnings revision — drove the bulk of the outperformance. The sharp sell-off to ~$62 in early-to-mid June (coinciding with broader market weakness and sector rotation) followed by a strong recovery suggests the stock is sensitive to macro sentiment but the underlying re-rating thesis remains intact. The stock now trades at 6.4x NTM P/FCF and 5.7x NTM P/E, still at a meaningful discount to payment processing peers despite the rally.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $500M accelerated share repurchase announced May 7, confirming management's commitment to aggressive capital return at current valuations. The Worldpay integration is tracking ahead of schedule on cultural alignment and early cross-sell wins, which is the most important read-through for the Q2 print.
Key Takeaway: No open-market insider purchases or sales (Form 4 codes P/S) were identified for GPN in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 6, 2026) through August 4, 2026. The absence of insider selling ahead of earnings is a mild positive signal, though the lack of open-market buying at depressed June levels is notable given management's stated conviction that the stock is undervalued.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
No open-market transactions identified (May 6 – Aug 4, 2026) | — | — | — | — | No Form 4 P/S codes found in SEC data for this window |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings database. No open-market buys (code P) or sells (code S) were returned for GPN in the May 6 – August 4, 2026 window. Note: The company's $500M ASR program (announced May 7, 2026) represents corporate-level repurchase activity, not individual insider transactions. The absence of discretionary insider selling is a mild positive signal heading into the print; the absence of open-market buying is not unusual given the company's active corporate buyback program and blackout period proximity to earnings.
Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from the past 60 days is broadly constructive for GPN's Q2 2026 print. PayPal's raised guidance and stabilizing branded checkout signal healthy digital payments demand; FIS's "strong" banking demand environment is a positive read-through for payment technology spending. The one cautionary note is FIS's pro forma revenue guide cut, which is company-specific (capital markets execution) and not directly applicable to GPN's merchant acquiring business.
Scope: Only peer commentary from the past 60 days (June 5 – August 4, 2026) that relates to GPN's current reporting quarter (Q2 2026, ended June 30, 2026) or was delivered after GPN's last earnings (May 6, 2026) is included below. Stale peer commentary about prior-quarter results (e.g., Q1 2026 results reported by peers) is excluded. Each item is tagged as Direct Read-Through or Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable to help distinguish signal from noise.
Relevance: PayPal's Braintree/PSP segment is the most directly comparable business to GPN's enterprise merchant acquiring and e-commerce processing. PayPal's overall consumer network and Venmo are not comparable.
Commentary Theme | What PayPal Said | Read-Through for GPN | Classification |
Digital Payments Demand / TPV | TPV grew 10% YoY to $486.4B in Q2 2026; raising full-year non-GAAP transaction margin dollar guidance; "performance in the quarter gives us confidence as we move into the second half" | Positive: Healthy digital payment volumes support GPN's merchant acquiring revenue trajectory. Broad-based demand for payment processing is intact. | Direct Read-Through |
Branded Checkout Stabilization | "Branded checkout has further stabilized"; raising full-year branded checkout expectation to low-single-digit range; slight improvement in Europe vs. Q1 | Positive: Stabilization in checkout volumes suggests consumer spending at the point of digital purchase remains healthy, relevant to GPN's e-commerce processing volumes (especially post-Worldpay). | Direct Read-Through |
Braintree/PSP: Value-Added Services Focus | "Immediate focus is on driving adoption of our existing value-added services across our large enterprise merchants in the U.S. and Europe"; expanding technical sales capability; unifying Braintree, PayPal Complete Payments, and Hyperwallet into a single platform | Direct Read-Through: Mirrors GPN's own VAS attach rate strategy and platform consolidation (Genius, Worldpay integration). Validates the industry-wide shift toward VAS monetization as the primary growth lever in merchant acquiring. | Direct Read-Through |
Q3 2026 Guidance: Low-Single-Digit Revenue Growth | Expects "low single-digit revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis" in Q3; non-GAAP EPS to "decline within a low single-digit range" due to higher opex investment | Neutral: PayPal's Q3 deceleration is driven by investment spending and Braintree mix shift, not demand weakness. Not directly applicable to GPN's cost structure or growth profile. | Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable |
Consumer Financial Services Diversification | Financial services portfolio (credit, BNPL) "on pace to grow revenue at least twice as fast as the total company this year"; diversifying beyond checkout | Non-Comparable: GPN does not have a comparable consumer credit/BNPL business. PayPal's financial services growth is company-specific and not a read-through for GPN's revenue mix. | Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable |
Venmo / P2P Network | Evolving Venmo "from a peer-to-peer payments app into a broader money management platform"; strong Venmo momentum | Non-Comparable: GPN has no equivalent consumer P2P platform. Venmo commentary is not a read-through for GPN. | Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable |
Bottom Line (PayPal): PayPal's raised guidance and stabilizing checkout volumes are a net positive read-through for GPN's Q2 merchant acquiring volumes. The Braintree VAS strategy directly validates GPN's own approach. Discount the consumer financial services and Venmo commentary as non-comparable.
Relevance: FIS is a payment technology peer with significant overlap in financial institution clients and payment infrastructure. However, FIS's business is now primarily banking software and capital markets (after selling its Worldpay stake in January 2026), making it less directly comparable to GPN's merchant acquiring focus.
Commentary Theme | What FIS Said | Read-Through for GPN | Classification |
Banking Demand Environment | "The banking demand environment is really strong"; banks focused on payments (digital currencies, debit/credit), fraud, data/AI, lending, and modernization; "we don't see banks putting decisions on hold" | Positive: Strong financial institution demand for payment technology is a read-through for GPN's FI channel (including Worldpay's 6,000 bank branches). Banks "starving for technology solutions" supports GPN's Genius distribution through FI partners. | Direct Read-Through |
AI Adoption in Financial Services | Engineering productivity 1.5–2x higher with AI; manual service tickets down 70%; triage time down 75%; "cyber is one of our biggest technology spends" | Positive: Validates GPN's own AI investment thesis (Genius AI-first handheld, Fraudsight, agentic commerce). Industry-wide AI adoption in fintech is accelerating, supporting GPN's product differentiation narrative. | Direct Read-Through |
Pro Forma Revenue Guide Cut | Pro forma revenue growth lowered to 4.5–5.0% (from 5.1–5.7%); pro forma EBITDA growth lowered to 5.9–6.9% (from 7.2–8.4%) | Cautionary but Non-Comparable: FIS's guide cut is driven by capital markets execution issues (sales behind plan, slower backlog conversion) and lower professional services — not merchant acquiring or consumer spending weakness. Not a direct read-through for GPN's revenue trajectory. | Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable |
Capital Markets Softness | Capital markets revenue growth reduced to 3–3.5% (from 5.5%); "sales are behind plan in the first half"; evaluating strategic alternatives for select capital markets products | Non-Comparable: GPN has no capital markets segment. FIS's capital markets challenges are entirely company-specific and not a read-through for GPN. | Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable |
Interest Rate Environment | "Interest rates are incredibly stuck where they are right now"; not expecting rate changes in 2026; lending volumes tempered by rate environment | Neutral: Stable rates are broadly neutral for GPN's merchant acquiring business. GPN's debt is ~95% fixed (per Q1 call), so rate stability is a modest positive for financing costs. | Direct Read-Through |
Competitive Landscape: Visa/Pismo | Visa's Pismo strategy targets "small to midsize banks and fintechs, not large banks"; FIS sees minimal disruption in its large FI market | Positive: Visa/Pismo competitive threat is concentrated in small/mid FI segment, not large enterprise or merchant acquiring. Reduces competitive risk for GPN's FI channel and enterprise merchant business. | Direct Read-Through |
Bottom Line (FIS): The strong banking demand environment and AI adoption commentary are genuine positive read-throughs for GPN's FI channel and product differentiation strategy. The pro forma revenue guide cut and capital markets softness are company-specific and should not be extrapolated to GPN's merchant acquiring business.
Relevance: WEX operates in fleet and corporate payments, with some overlap in B2B payment processing. The read-through to GPN's merchant acquiring business is limited but relevant for commercial spending trends.
Commentary Theme | What WEX Said (Q2 2026) | Read-Through for GPN | Classification |
B2B / Commercial Payment Volumes | WEX reported Q2 2026 results (earnings release July 22, 2026; call July 23, 2026). Specific volume commentary available in WEX's Q2 2026 earnings release. | Modest read-through for GPN's commercial payments exposure. WEX's fleet and corporate card volumes are a proxy for B2B spending trends, which are relevant to GPN's enterprise merchant segment. | Direct Read-Through (limited) |
Fleet / Fuel Volumes | WEX's fleet segment is heavily influenced by fuel prices and fleet utilization, which are not directly relevant to GPN's merchant acquiring business. | Non-Comparable: WEX's fleet-specific dynamics (fuel price sensitivity, fleet utilization) are not applicable to GPN's diversified merchant acquiring portfolio. | Mix-Specific / Non-Comparable |
Note: While not peer commentary, GPN management's own post-earnings conference appearances (JP Morgan May 20 and Mizuho June 10) are the most important "read-through" for the Q2 print, as they represent the most recent management communication about current-quarter trends.
Event | Date | Key Q2-Relevant Commentary | Implication for Q2 Print |
JP Morgan Global Technology, Media & Communications Conference | May 20, 2026 | Consumer spending "surprisingly healthy" through May; Q2 travel headwind tracking to guided ~100 bps; Middle East airline capacity down 30–70% by carrier; Link2Gov tax softness confirmed; 2026 guidance unchanged; Worldpay integration "moving full steam ahead" at 120 days; cost synergies $70–80M in 2026, exiting at $150M run rate; 500 new direct sellers targeted (300 hired as of May) | No incremental negative; Q2 headwinds are contained and quantified; back-half acceleration thesis intact; Genius momentum continuing |
Mizuho Technology Conference | June 10, 2026 | "Nothing changed since our first quarter call"; Q2 travel headwind "exactly what we called out"; 150 days into Worldpay integration; $600M expense synergy target on track; $200M revenue synergy target (exiting 2028); Genius "central part of our story" with incremental 2H tailwind expected; enterprise pipeline "signed but not wide" logos expected to flow volumes in 2H; travel normalization "still my hope" for back half | Most recent management communication; no red flags; confirms Q2 headwind is materializing as guided; back-half normalization remains base case |
Signal | Source | Direction | Applicability to GPN Q2 |
Digital payment volumes healthy; TPV +10% YoY | PayPal Q2 2026 | Positive | High — direct read-through for merchant acquiring volumes |
Branded checkout stabilizing; Europe improving | PayPal Q2 2026 | Positive | High — relevant to GPN's e-commerce processing (Worldpay) |
VAS attach rate strategy validated across industry | PayPal Q2 2026 | Positive | High — mirrors GPN's Genius VAS monetization approach |
Banking demand "really strong"; no decisions on hold | FIS Q2 2026 | Positive | High — supports GPN's FI channel and Genius bank distribution |
AI adoption accelerating; productivity gains tangible | FIS Q2 2026 | Positive | Medium — validates GPN's AI investment thesis (Genius, Fraudsight) |
Visa/Pismo targets small/mid FI, not large enterprise | FIS Q2 2026 | Positive | Medium — reduces competitive risk for GPN's enterprise and FI channels |
FIS pro forma revenue guide cut (capital markets) | FIS Q2 2026 | Cautionary | Low — company-specific (capital markets execution); not applicable to GPN merchant acquiring |
GPN: Consumer spending "surprisingly healthy" through May | GPN JPM Conference (May 20) | Positive | Very High — direct management commentary on Q2 trading |
GPN: Q2 headwind tracking to guided ~100 bps; no change to guidance | GPN Mizuho Conference (June 10) | Neutral | Very High — confirms Q2 headwind is contained; no upside or downside surprise vs. guidance |
Overall Peer Read-Through Assessment: The weight of peer evidence is constructive for GPN's Q2 2026 print. Digital payment volumes are healthy (PayPal), financial institution demand for payment technology is strong (FIS), and GPN's own management confirmed as recently as June 10 that Q2 is tracking to guidance with no incremental negative. The primary risk remains whether the Middle East travel headwind resolves on schedule — a question that peer commentary cannot answer but that management's back-half guidance depends on. The FIS revenue guide cut is the only cautionary data point, and it is clearly company-specific rather than a sector-wide signal.
Excluded from Peer Commentary: PAYX Q4 2026 earnings (June 24, 2026) were identified in the document search but relate to PAYX's own fiscal Q4 (ending May 2026) results, not commentary about GPN's Q2 2026 reporting period. PAYX's business (payroll/HCM) has limited read-through to GPN's merchant acquiring business and is excluded per the scope criteria. Similarly, any peer commentary about prior-quarter (Q1 2026) results is excluded as stale.