HONA Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-05

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HONA Report Q2 revenue IN-LINE pred ~$4.68B vs. cons $4.67B MEDIUM
HONA Report Q2 organic sales growth IN-LINE pred ~5% vs. cons ~5% HIGH
HONA Report Q2 adjusted EPS IN-LINE pred ~$2.03 vs. cons $2.07 LOW
HONA Guide Inaugural FY26 adjusted EPS guide LOWER guide ~$8.10 vs. cons ~$8.35 (FY2026) MEDIUM
HONA Guide Inaugural FY26 revenue guide UNCHANGED guide ~$18.6B vs. cons ~$18.8B (FY2026) MEDIUM
HONA Guide Inaugural FY26 free cash flow guide LOWER guide ~$1.3B vs. cons ~$1.5B (FY2026) LOW
HONA Guide Backlog BETTER guide ~$19.5B vs. ~$19B prior (Q2 exit) MEDIUM
HONA Guide Standalone segment margin LOWER guide ~23.8% vs. cons ~24.5% (FY2026) LOW
HONA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% LOW
HONA Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) The Q2 operating quarter is already known from HON's July 23 print (Aero +5% organic, margin compressed by ~$40M obsolescence, material supply still capping conversion, Defense flat), so the incremental catalyst is the first standalone P&L and inaugural guide. A conservative kitchen-sink first guide with full stranded-corporate/interest dis-synergies below the clean segment math pulls sell-side EPS/FCF estimates down; out-period revisions extend the initial negative move on a still-full ~23x valuation, driving follow-through lower. LOW