{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.68B vs. cons $4.67B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 organic sales growth",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~5% vs. cons ~5%",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.03 vs. cons $2.07",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Inaugural FY26 adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.10 vs. cons ~$8.35 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Inaugural FY26 revenue guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$18.6B vs. cons ~$18.8B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Inaugural FY26 free cash flow guide",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.3B vs. cons ~$1.5B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Backlog",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$19.5B vs. ~$19B prior (Q2 exit)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Standalone segment margin",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~23.8% vs. cons ~24.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "The Q2 operating quarter is already known from HON's July 23 print (Aero +5% organic, margin compressed by ~$40M obsolescence, material supply still capping conversion, Defense flat), so the incremental catalyst is the first standalone P&L and inaugural guide. A conservative kitchen-sink first guide with full stranded-corporate/interest dis-synergies below the clean segment math pulls sell-side EPS/FCF estimates down; out-period revisions extend the initial negative move on a still-full ~23x valuation, driving follow-through lower.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}