| HST |
Report |
Adjusted FFO per share |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.62 |
MEDIUM |
| HST |
Report |
Comparable RevPAR growth (YoY) |
BEAT |
pred ~+4.8% vs. cons ~+4.4% |
MEDIUM |
| HST |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDAre |
BEAT |
pred ~$507M vs. cons ~$500M |
LOW |
| HST |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted FFO/share guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$2.15 (raised midpoint) vs. cons $2.13 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| HST |
Guide |
FY26 comparable RevPAR guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~+3.5% to +4.5% (mid ~4.0%) vs. cons ~+3.8% (FY26) |
LOW |
| HST |
Guide |
FY26 Adjusted EBITDAre guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$1,820M (raised midpoint) vs. cons $1,810M (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| HST |
Guide |
World Cup Q2 RevPAR contribution / 2H confidence |
UNKNOWN |
pred ~40bps of 60bps FY benefit in Q2 vs. cons ~40bps embedded (Q2/FY26) |
LOW |
| HST |
Guide |
Capital return — remaining ~$500M Four Seasons proceeds |
UNKNOWN |
pred buyback pace slows near $25 vs. ~$405M authorization remaining (as of Q2) |
LOW |
| HST |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| HST |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
A modest Q2 beat and small raise is likely already priced with the stock at 52-week highs (~$25, +38% YTD) and a well-worn beat-and-raise cadence. The raise is first-half-weighted while management explicitly guides 2H RevPAR/rate deceleration to low-single-digits, and company-wide FFO growth is muted by 2025-26 dispositions (smaller portfolio, 74-hotel comp set). Out-period math means the implicit 2H caution pulls forward estimates down even after a headline beat, so an initial pop should fade as sell-side trims back-half numbers; sell-the-news into elevated positioning. |
LOW |