{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted FFO per share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.63 vs. cons $0.62",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Comparable RevPAR growth (YoY)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+4.8% vs. cons ~+4.4%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDAre",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$507M vs. cons ~$500M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted FFO/share guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.15 (raised midpoint) vs. cons $2.13 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 comparable RevPAR guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+3.5% to +4.5% (mid ~4.0%) vs. cons ~+3.8% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EBITDAre guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1,820M (raised midpoint) vs. cons $1,810M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "World Cup Q2 RevPAR contribution / 2H confidence",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred ~40bps of 60bps FY benefit in Q2 vs. cons ~40bps embedded (Q2/FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Capital return \u2014 remaining ~$500M Four Seasons proceeds",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred buyback pace slows near $25 vs. ~$405M authorization remaining (as of Q2)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest Q2 beat and small raise is likely already priced with the stock at 52-week highs (~$25, +38% YTD) and a well-worn beat-and-raise cadence. The raise is first-half-weighted while management explicitly guides 2H RevPAR/rate deceleration to low-single-digits, and company-wide FFO growth is muted by 2025-26 dispositions (smaller portfolio, 74-hotel comp set). Out-period math means the implicit 2H caution pulls forward estimates down even after a headline beat, so an initial pop should fade as sell-side trims back-half numbers; sell-the-news into elevated positioning.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}