HWM Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-06

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
HWM Report Adj. EPS (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$1.29 vs. cons ~$1.24 HIGH
HWM Report Revenue (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$2.46B vs. cons ~$2.41B MEDIUM
HWM Report Adj. EBITDA / margin (Q2'26) BEAT pred ~$785M / ~32.0% vs. cons ~$768M / ~31.9% MEDIUM
HWM Guide FY26 Adj. EPS guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$5.05 vs. cons ~$4.99 (FY26) HIGH
HWM Guide FY26 Revenue guide (raise) BETTER guide ~$9.78B vs. cons ~$9.70B (FY26) MEDIUM
HWM Guide FY26 Free Cash Flow guide BETTER guide ~$1.80B vs. cons ~$1.76B (FY26) MEDIUM
HWM Guide Q3'26 Adj. EPS implied guide BETTER guide ~$1.30 vs. cons ~$1.27 (Q3'26) MEDIUM
HWM Guide IGT/data-center 7th customer contract + capacity UNKNOWN pred 7-of-7 signed, demand ~doubling 3-5yr vs. cons ~6-of-7 assumed (2026-2029) LOW
HWM Guide Engine Products spares/margin durability BETTER pred spares ~+30% YoY, EP margin ~36.5% vs. cons ~+22% / ~35.5% (Q2'26) MEDIUM
HWM Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
HWM Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.5% (FADE) Clean beat-and-raise is largely priced in at ~59x fwd EPS and all-time highs, so the initial pop is modest and prone to profit-taking. Out-period math: even a raised FY26 (~$5.05) leaves limited implied 2H upside vs. the strong 1H run-rate, and CAM interp/interest-expense optics plus rich valuation cap follow-through. Historical pattern (Q1: +6% day-1 then flat-to-fade over the next week) supports a partial fade back toward ~flat idiosyncratic by day 5 unless the IGT 7th-customer/2027 accretion narrative meaningfully surprises. LOW