| HWM |
Report |
Q2'26 Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.28 vs. cons $1.24 |
HIGH |
| HWM |
Report |
Q2'26 Adjusted EBITDA |
BEAT |
pred ~$790M vs. cons $768M |
HIGH |
| HWM |
Report |
Q2'26 Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$2.44B vs. cons $2.412B |
MEDIUM |
| HWM |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$5.08 vs. cons $5.03 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HWM |
Guide |
FY2026 Revenue guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$9.75B vs. cons $9.70B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HWM |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$3.10B vs. cons $3.08B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HWM |
Guide |
FY2026 Organic revenue growth guide |
BETTER |
guide ~15% vs. cons ~14% (FY2026) |
LOW |
| HWM |
Guide |
IGT major-customer contracts finalized |
BETTER |
pred 7 of 7 customers signed vs. cons 6 of 7 expected (Q2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| HWM |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| HWM |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.8% (STABILIZE) |
HWM's own Q1'26 print showed an identical pattern: a large beat-and-raise produced a big day-1 pop (+6.6% residual) that then plateaued rather than extending or reversing over the following week. Heading into Q2, expectations are already elevated (stock +35% YTD, consensus tracking at/above guidance, PT upside thin), so even a clean beat-and-raise is likely mostly priced in. Implicit H2 conservatism (tougher IGT comps, Commercial Transportation still soft, added CAM interest expense) caps follow-through buying, while the fundamentally strong quarter and full-year raise should prevent a meaningful fade — net effect is an initial pop that largely holds but doesn't meaningfully extend over 5 days. |
LOW |